«INFOFOCUS» bulletin N 9 (175), 2016

E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 9, 2016 – ISSN 1822-5578
(only Russian)


1. Basic trends of September
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Elections as a threat to stability and security
3.2. Mathematical anomaly vs. mathematical coincidence
4. Economics
4.1. FRS decided to wait
4.2. Newfound dynamics
4.3. All is stable, but the main thing is lacking
5. Finances
5.1. Same trap
6. Our forecast for October
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers

While forecasting the turnout for parliamentary elections, we were assuming that the CEC “will not be guided by IISEPS, but by its own past experience”. And we were right. Official result is 74.7%. It fits our forecast perfectly: 74±2%. Let us note that the forecast of the experts from Informational-Analytical Center under the Administration of President of the Republic of Belarus was less exact. They expected 80%, a result based on sociological surveys conducted in April-June.

That’s a slight hitch, and an unexpected one, taking into account that Belarusian power treats any socially important campaign as a special operation. Elections were always at the top of the short-list of the most important campaigns.

We were right in our predictions regarding the turnout, but we were mistaken regarding persons. Despite our forecast, two oppositional candidates were admitted to the Parliament. Apparently, we did not take into account the extent of anxiety spread in the upper echelons of power “vertical” amid economic crisis and decrease of resource injections from Russia. Under the conditions of the “new normality” the need for strengthening of Western vector of foreign policy has increased. This is the reason for “the wild burst of liberalism” during the parliamentary elections.

It wasn’t difficult to predict the conclusions of OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights. Only preliminary conclusions were published as for the moment we are working on the September issue of Infofocus, but let us cite the first sentence of the first paragraph of the official document: “Parliamentary elections held on September 11 were efficiently organized, but, despite certain measures of the power, a range of systemic flaws is still noticeable.” Such an introduction increases the chances that the final document will qualify the elections as not concordant with democratic standards despite a “certain progress”.

In our forecast on the course of another oil conflict between the founders of the Union State we did not exclude that it would intensify after the electoral campaigns in Belarus and Russia. It could seem we were wrong: on September 11 Alexander Lukashenko told the journalists on the polling station that Minsk and Moscow had almost settled on the price of Russian gas. However, three days later surfaced the information on inefficiency of negations in Moscow, and Belarusian head of state made several tough statements towards Russia during the meeting with the State Secretary of the Union State Grigoriy Rapota on September 20.

IISEPS board