«INFOFOCUS» bulletin N 8 (174), 2016

E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 8, 2016 – ISSN 1822-5578
(only Russian)


1. Basic trends of June
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Prisoner of the Matrix
3.2. Elections as a holiday
4. Economics
4.1. Waiting for stock-exchange bubble collapse
4.2. Russia is a free shipper of human potential
4.3. Qualitative changes amid quantitative decrease
5. Finances
5.1. Negative income is a loss
6. Our forecast for August
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers

Trying to predict the nearest future of the exchange rate of Belarusian ruble, we suggested that “there are more chances that it will weaken than that it will remain stable”. On August 1, $ 1 amounted to BYN 1.9958; on August 31, it amounts to BYN 1.9578 (-0.2%). Thus, our forecast was erroneous.

Our forecast of ruble weakening was based on the imminent weakening of Russian ruble. However, in August our neighbor’s currency kept the balance. One of the main factors influencing this stability is the policy of the Bank of Russia aimed at raising reserve requirements on foreign currency deposits. This means that banks have to create certain reserves when they accept deposits in foreign currency. Naturally, the higher the requirements are, the less profitable it is for banks. Here is the statistics on raising these requirements: on April 1, 2016 it was raised from 4.25% up to 5.25%; on July 1 – up to 6.25%; on August 1 – up to 7%.

But we keep our forecast. The Bank of Russia’s policy on de-dollarization of assets has exhausted its resources, while the bouquet of external and internal risks continues to bloom. The most important threat for the exchange rate of Belarusian ruble today is a dramatic decrease of export, and things are getting worse in this direction on a daily basis.

Our hypothesis about a shift (a formal one, naturally) from electoral authoritarianism to competitive authoritarianism is still relevant in the end of August. There is a certain intrigue regarding the pro-power candidates. According to some experts, we should expect surprises in Mogilev region.

After an article in “Kommersant” about the readiness of Russia to make serious concessions in the latest oil conflict, our forecast regarding the victory of Russia is jeopardized. However, just like in the case of Belarusian ruble, it’s not over yet. As a confirmation of our theory let us quote Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Arakdy Dvorkovich, who stated that oil supplies to Belarus would not be raised until the debt for gas is cleared off.

IISEPS executive board