“INFOFOCUS” N11, 2015

E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 11, 2015 – ISSN 1822-5578
(only Russian)


1. Basic trends of November
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. From modernization of production to modernization of management
3.2. Blank line in the October table
4. Economics
4.1. The next year will be difficult for economies depending on oil price
4.2. Thousands per month vs. Millions per day
4.3. Single achievements amid the failure of the general line
5. Finances
5.1. The IMF’s offers are not allergenic any more
6. Our forecast for December
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!

As we’ve supposed, November was busy with active talks about structural economic reforms. These talks were started on November 3 during the “October Economic Forum”. Belarus First Deputy Economy Minister Alexander Zaborovsky, in particular, presented another “road map” of reforms during this forum. However, against our expectations, this program was not published.
Let us cite the forecast for November: “Confrontation of supporters and opponents of changes in power will become an important element of what is, under the specific Belarusian conditions, considered to be politics”. Change supporters in power were taking part in the forum, while change opponents gave their answer on November 6. A. Lukashenko voiced it during the oath taking. It would seem that he had completely canceled the hopes of reformers. However, the state of Belarusian state is used to 180-degree reversals, and he demonstrated it on December 2, saying that he completely agrees with the IMF’s offers.
Unfortunately, we cannot confirm or disprove our forecast on inflation growth. Statistical data for November was not published yet. Nevertheless, December started with the growth of tariffs on housing and community amenities. It should be noted though that they grew insignificantly – around 3.8%.
Addressing the meeting of “people in power of this country”, A. Lukashenko mentioned the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly. He promised to explain during it “what political, state and economic system was suggested to us 20-25 years ago”. Historic digression of the head of state on this topic will undoubtedly attract the attention of experts. It’s a pity that during the Assembly there won’t be a serious discussion on the political and state system formed in Belarus during the last two decades.
A. Lukashenko didn’t specify when the All-Belarusian Assembly will be held. It won’t definitely happen in December. The closest possible date is the end of January.
As for the destiny of the Russian air base, our supposition was precise: no final decision was taken in November.

IISEPS executive board