E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 8, 2002 (only Russian)



Theme of the month:
A.Lukashenko’s third term: everything is possible?

Person of the month
Leonid Kozik – Belarusian type of crisis management?

Document of the month:
Control on sociology – control on public opinion

Organization of the month:
Belarusian Republic Union of Youth – reinkarnation of komsomol?


Dear readers!

The main theme of past month, undoubtedly, was the possibility for A. Lukashenko to be elected to the presidency for the third term. On a press conference he for the first time has declared, that he may participate in future presidential elections. Also he described the probable scenery of such events – the first step is referenda changing the Constitution (today it forbiddens one person to be the president more than two times in succession), and then new elections. What does Lukashenko’s statement really mean? Is this scenery possible? Why has the president started to talk about it right now? Our experts – Chairman of BUE A. Potupa and Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Commission on legislation A. Krasutsky – discuss all these issues in the section “Theme of the month”.
On the same press conference A. Lukashenko named three structures which, in his opinion, should become “support” of authority – trade unions, the unions of youth and local Councils. And, really, in September the first two structures have undergone significant changes. Extraordinary congress of Federation of trade unions has finished the authorities’ attack on trade unions and formalized the establishing of state control on trade unions. New FTUB’ leader, the assistant to the Head of presidential Administration L. Kozik, who is “cleaning” the trade unions, has became our “Person of the month”. L. Kozik, former deputy of XII Supreme Soviet, after A. Lukashenko’s came to office work in the government and presidential Administration, supervised preparation of the project of the Constitutional Act of the United State of Russia and Belarus and issues of Belarus cooperation with Iraq. This person – as a typical representative of the present nomenclature, his personal prospects, as well as the future of FTUB are described in the comments of the Head of branch trade union G. Fedynich and the rector of the International Institute of Labor and Social Relations J. Veselov.
Events in trade unions occurring the last month probably will make branch organizations which heads do not support the policy of authorities to leave Federation. In contrivers – two youth organizations – BUY and BPUY unite. BRUY – the result of their union is our “Organization of the month”. Why two organizations that recently made mutual claims concerning the property on building of former komsomole in court unite? Will the new structure survive? What will be its relations with other youth organizations? Ex-leader of BPUY, the deputy of the House of Representatives V. Janchevsky and the chairman of “Malady front” P. Severinets comment these questions.
In the section “Document of the month” we are to represent the statutory act – this time the decision of the government supporting authorities’ policy to put independent sociology under the control. Now, when the rating of the president continues to reduce, the society is interested to receive the objective information on a situation in the country. So the value of independent social researches is difficult for overestimating. However the Belarusian authorities have the other opinion. IISEPS’ comment and comment of “Belaruskaya delovaya gazeta” editor – in – chief S. Kalinkina are about motives of authorities’ decisions and also about possible consequences for independent sociology, press and all Belarusian society.
In our traditional section “From IISEPS working table” we offer the most interesting results of the national poll carried out in September.
We hope, offered materials will be interesting and useful for you. We are waiting for your responses, remarks and offers!

IISEPS executive board

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