E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 11, 2007 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of November
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Economics

3.1. Secret reserves of statistics
3.2. Now you see what we are made of!
3.3. If we want to survive
3.4. Remedy for cockroaches
4. Finances
4.1. A ruble is not a friend of a dollar
5. Politics
5.1. Who was the first to say “meow”?
5.2. Two forums
5.3. A vexed question
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for December


Dear readers!


Analysts often call president A. Lukashenko an unpredictable politician. It must be admitted that we do not share such a view on the head of the Belarusian state. Having once formulated his political credo – “I shall not lead my people after the civilized world”-he follows it with enviable permanency. His unwillingness to lead others “after the civilized world” and to follow it himself is determined in the first place by the logic of the retention of power, which dictates a sequence of steps minutely described in political science.
Being guided by this logic we supposed that in November one was to expect public “showdown” and bringing up a classical question “Whose fault is it?” On November, 13 in the course of the conference on socio-economic development forecast projects such a question was publicly brought up. The search of answer to the question did not call forth any special difficulties- it was the fault of the government. The president spoke convincingly: “It seems to me you have become seriously cluttered with slime. The government as a whole. Security agencies as well as financial ones and so on. You must understand me; I can’t recur at such conferences from year to year, or even say the same things for the third time. It simply makes a laughing-stock of the authorities in the face of the people”.
In compliance with the results of the conference representatives of the executive branch of the “national laughing-stock” got the deadline. A. Lukashenko explained that according to the output of the first six months of 2008 in case the predictive activities are not accomplished: “Everyone who does not fulfill the prognosis which is going to be approved will leave.” And according to the output of nine months, “if the prognosis is not fulfilled I will begin to form a new government”.
If we descend from the summit of the political Olympus to the level of everyday life the reason for the forthcoming penalties becomes clear even to an average man inexperienced in the economic cobweb. The rise in prices continued in November and dairy produce was the first to go up in price. Statistics did not please us either. In October inflation increased by 1.5%-an overall record of 2007. As we supposed, the problem of rise in prices is turning into a “long-playing” one; and the coming New Year’s increase in prices for energy carriers is going to contribute its weighty mite into the already formed tendency.
Our forecast concerning the paucity of November “Social March” has also come true. Analysts were wrong to blame the organizers of the march. They should have glanced at the IISEPS site. Our experience of many years in studying the public opinion is evidence of considerable patience reserve in the Belarusian society. The twofold increase in price of sunflower-seed oil will not make Belarusians go out in the streets; to say nothing about the 20% increase in price of the taxi service. The well-known heroine of Nona Mordyukova once said: “Our people do not go to the bakery by taxi”.

IISEPS executive board

Download full version (in Russian only)