E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 4, 2007 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of April (Through the prism of Address)
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Economics

3.1. Course for import eviction
3.2. Growth of competitive ability
3.3. Spotted privatizing, or “We don’t need the redundant”
3.4. One body is nobody
3.5. One step forward, two backward
4. Finances
5. Politics
5.1. Belarus-Russia relations
5.2. European direction
5.3. Once again “meeting the wishes of Congress”
5.4. Chernobyl march
5.5. Good news
6. Our forecast for May
7. From the IISEPS Desktop


Dear readers!


Our forecast for April published in the March issue of Infofocus proved almost fully true. We were mistaken only once when we assumed that the President would sum up the 1st quarter results in his manner of a stern farther. Here is a quote from our forecast: “A. Lukashenko will also give comments in public but we shouldn’t expect any clamorous resignations. They never swap horses while crossing the stream, and especially when the horses are chosen by their loyalty and not expertise”. The tone during sizing up was victorious. It came out unexpectedly that the Government has provided for and has calculated every eventuality. What’s more, twofold rise in gas prices served an excellent incitement to further economic development.
The event N. 1 of the previous month was undoubtedly President’s Address to the public. It didn’t bring any surprises. A. Lukashenko almost didn’t come beyond Infofocus forecast: “In general, the current course will be recognized as the only right, and the society and officialdom will be given another awake call. They will say a lot of right things about innovational development, knowledge economics, etc.”
Our forecast concerning dialogue between the opposition and the power also proved to be true. The message did give an answer to the flow of proposals from the United Democratic Forces. A. Lukashenko remained faithful to his standpoint (Who to agree with?) and simply ignored all efforts of the opposition politicians.
No radical changes happened within the opposition camp either. We were right completing the April forecast with the following words: “All energy of the opposition will go to held the Congress, so A. Bukhvostov’s wish “It would be good to get an unbiased analysis of what really happened” as usual won’t be demanded.

IISEPS executive board

Download full version (in Russian only)