E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 6, 2008 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of June
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics

3.1. Fragments of popular language
3.2. Family trade union
3.3. New law about Mass Media
4. Economics
4.1. Traction horse and its cart
4.2. If only bones were
4.3. Wages of a square metre amount
5. Finances
5.1. About unpleasant in short
5.2. First-born of the National Bank
5.3. Dollar dropped
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for July

8. From the IISEPS Desktop


Dear readers!


The Belarusian-American crisis transformed from the stage of political into “economic” one. In the beginning of June the American Embassy in Minsk organized an auction to sell its property. Another step after dismissing some of the embassy staff under the pressure of Belarusian authorities was substantial decrease of personal estate of diplomatic mission by the USA. Different household goods were sold at auction: coffee-brewers, heaters, furniture and so on. The automobiles of diplomats have been moved by Lithuanian drivers from the American Embassy in Belarus to Holland earlier. Now the furniture has been sold.
Thus, as we have supposed, the crisis on the one hand lost its spice, and on the other hand it finally entered “a long-term period”. In any case the sale of property means that the USA is not going to make concessions, but there are also no any signs on the Belarusian side to return to before-crisis position. One of the followed on the lower level state of equilibrium became possible due to tension declining in “the case of Kozulin”, then the chances of his release on parole became more vague. In the beginning of June the EU made a slight attempt to give its point of view on the Belarusian-American crisis. In a Slovenian town of Brdo the USA and EU made a joint statement about inadmissibility of pressure on foreign diplomatic authorized bodies, carried out by Belarusian authorities. However, further steps to creating “one front”, as it had been due to expect, were not seen.
Our forecasts according to the role the Belarusian authorities decided to give to the parliamentary elections in the process of regulating relationships with Europe appear to be true. Let’s illustrate the words said above by the citation from A. Lukashenko’s interview to the newspaper “Komsomolskaya Pravda”: “We want to demonstrate to the West and also to Russia how to conduct elections. We are going to make them so democratic in order you to be convinced of the final result, which candidate people do support”. However, the above citation can be commented on in a different way. A. Lukashenko is going to demonstrate not an ability to conduct really free elections, but people’s support of his course. If he manages to combine “two parts” we will see in the nearest future.
The uncertainties about public organisation “Belaya Rus” were finally resolved in July. The meeting was arranged to take place at a later time again. This time it will be held in autumn. According to minister of education A. Radkov, chairman of public organisation “Belaya Rus”, the meeting was postponed as the program of the organization was not ratified. But the unavailability of the ratified at the meeting program won’t prevent activists of “Belaya Rus” from participating in parliamentary elections. “We will help them (organization members) with the trusted to conduct organizing work, to participate in initiative groups. Of course, being the public organization, we have the right to take part in the work of electorates, to be observers, – we will work in this direction in an active way”, – claimed A. Radkov.
But everything enumerated above by Mr. A. Radkov can not be considered the activity of “party of power”. In order to be convinced of such a conclusion it is enough to remember the role “the United Russia” played at the previous parliamentary elections in the Russia. “Party of power” status nowadays can be conferred only by the first person of the state, that is why our considerations about “Belaya Rus” being lobby’s project (though not a favorable one) again proved to be confirmed.
Our forecasts of eradicating corruption in the higher echelons of power being a show also came true. This show didn’t take place, and in terms of unrolling electoral campaign there are practically no chances of its conducting.
And the end of “the case of $ 70 million”, in contrast to our forecast, was not sighted. Though Belarus made concessions, but they were only partial ones. Besides, it continued to pay for gas at the price of the first quarter in the second quarter, and the result of it was debt of $ 45 million. Such persistence of the Belarusian side hasn’t led to the next conflict yet, but the fact of not paying money back vividly demonstrates viability of “the Belarusian economical scheme”.

IISEPS executive board

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