E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 12, 2009 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of December
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics

3.1. An old song about the most important
3.2. Not one iota from the Constitution
3.3. The special-forces raid on the march
4. Economics
4.1. Who is going to join the list of “pigs”?
4.2. One after the other
4.3. There is no point in reasoning
5. Finances
5.1. The truth comes through comparison
5.2. The controlled growth of the debts
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for January
8. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!


Heads of states of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia had barely signed in Almaty the “roadmap” of the Common Free Market Zone construction when another “war” flared up between Belarus and Russia – this time with regard to the terms of delivery of the Russian oil.
The CFMZ is to be formed by January 1, 2012. Such date obviously does not suit A. Lukashenko as taking into account the size of the wage supplements approved during the last days of 2009 he might not be governing the partisan country in two years. This is the reason for his passionate appeal “to do everything during one year”. The colleagues of the Belarusian president did not embroil in the discussion on the terms topic. They are not bound by such high social commitments and that is why, just as we had supposed, the summit in Almaty went off calmly. They managed without getting personal.
As for the traditionally painful question connected with the price for the Russian gas, no surprises happened in December which was confirmed by the absence of the “Gazprom” employee Mr. S. Kupriyanov on TV screens on the New Year’s night. The final price, according to our forecast, was determined in line with “Medvedev’s formula”. As is reported by RIA Novosti with reference to the data of “Gazprom”, the price for the Russian gas for Belarus will make up about $ 168 for 1000 cubic meters in the first quarter of 2010, i.e. it is going to be 30% lower than the average European price.
At the end of the year the “swindlers” from the International Monetary Fund did not let us down either. In December they made all the necessary decisions for allocation of another tranche. Russian financiers, too, pleasantly surprised us. Four banks decided to club together to issue a syndicated loan for the Belarusian Ministry of Finance equal to the amount of 6 billion Russian rubles for a period more than a year. Besides, the above mentioned banks promised to place Belarusian government bonds in the Russian stock market for an overall amount of 15 billion Russian rubles.

IISEPS executive board

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