E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 10, 2009 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of October
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics

3.1. What names someone calls others…
3.2. The end of the Belarusian history
4. Economics
4.1. The IMF in the role of the “Dream Factory”
4.2. A mutiny on the ship
4.3. A mutiny on the ship-2
5. Finances
5.1. No one lends money so far
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for November


Dear readers!


On October, 21 the executive council of the IMF decided to allocate for Belarus another tranche of the loan equaling $ 700 mln. Just as we had supposed, no sensation was caused. Quite stable business relations have been formed between the “Red house” and the “swindlers from the IMF” today; therefore one should not expect any serious conflicts between them in the near future. Attention should also be paid to the October statement of Belarus deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs S. Aleinik in which he did not rule out the possibility of macro-economic financial aid allotment for Belarus by the European Commission before the end of the year. As for the “new signals concerning a positive solution of the sanction problem”, then in October they were given by the chairperson of the CEC L. Ermoshina who announced preparation of “revolutionary” (the term of the lawyer S. Alfer) changes of the election legislation.
Progress in the legislative field did not cancel the usual policy of socio-cide (the policy of elimination of organizations independent from the authorities). In October the Ministry of Justice once again refused registration to the Belarusian party of the working people. Having examined the documents of the BPWP, the Ministry of Justice came to the conclusion that “the actual number of founders was smaller than the minimum permissible number necessary for creation of a political party”. Besides, another round of “poking with the horns” concerning the Minsk office of the Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Gramada) ended not in favor of the party. True, the authorities allowed holding the founding congress of the party “Belarusian Christian Democracy” (BCD) in Minsk. It is not the first founding congress of the BCD already. As experience teaches us, the main difficulties occur by the Christian democrats on the registration stage. Therefore, it is too early to rejoice so far.
In October Belarusian-Russian relations were determined in many respects by the unmasking statements addressed to Prime Minister V. Putin by president A. Lukashenko (on October, 2 in the course of a press-conference for the representatives of the Russian regional mass media). The whole set of statements necessary in such a situation was made by the Russian officials; the statements, by the way, being quite restrained in form. Particularly, let us mention an interview given by “Gazprom” Chief Executive Officer A. Miller in which he emphasized the necessity to comply with the former gas prices agreements for Belarus stipulating their step-by-step increase. It should be mentioned, that the tension wave in the Belarusian-Russian relations evidently abated by the end of the month.
Rejuvenation of the BPF Party has already begun to tell upon the activity of the JDF (Joint Democratic Forces). Just as we had supposed, the destiny of the “megaproject with regard to holding primaries” turned out to be open to question. In October its supporters suggested reduction of the nation-wide project to the district scale. Most probably, however, the JDF will have to reject the reduced primaries project in the near future as well.

IISEPS executive board

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