E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 9, 2009 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of September
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics

3.1. Purposefully and methodically
3.2. A rather progressive draft decree
3.3. Policy as a procedure
4. Economics
4.1. The end of the irresponsibility epoch
4.2. As the call, so the echo
4.3. Positive tendencies in the here-and-now mode
5. Finances
5.1. Population’s pessimism vs. the main banker’s optimism
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for October
8. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!


The second wave of the Russian, as well as of the world economic crisis, is still lingering. It does not, however, prevent the main economic indicators from gradual worsening. It is especially noticeable in Russia as far as an investment decrease is concerned. The given indicator directly pertains to Belarus as many Belarusian goods exported to Russia are investment. In the first place it concerns the machine building produce. It is no coincidence that the GDP growth on a cumulative total from the beginning of the year turned out to be negative for the first time.
August lull in the relations between the participants of the Union State, just as we had supposed, continued in September. Another meeting of heads of the two countries which took place during the joint military maneuvers “West-2009” was not accompanied by any serious public statements.
The Belarusian foreign policy vector, however, continued its forward movement in the western direction in September. President A. Lukashenko’s trip to Vilnius and his meeting with Lithuanian president D. Grybauskaite should be mentioned in this connection. The majority of the Belarusian analysts pay attention to the fact that the meeting could not have taken place without concurrence of Brussels. One cannot, but agree with it. Thus, the meeting of heads of two neighboring states which lasted for an hour and a half should be regarded as additional evidence of the EU readiness to subject to revision its former relations with “the last European dictator”. Therefore, the personal initiative of Italian Prime Minister S. Berlusconi to visit Belarus does not look so personal any more.
Another opinion poll held by the IISEPS confirmed our supposition concerning stability of A. Lukashenko’s rating. The economic crisis does not at all tell on the popularity of the Belarusian father so far. However, the forecast regarding a slight growth of the main social indices did not come true – the Belarusian society’s optimism level turned out to considerably exceed our expectations. As a result, two out of three indices reached the pre-crisis level (see it in detail in the rubric “From the IISEPS desktop).

IISEPS executive board

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