E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 8, 2009 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of August
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics

3.1. Special case № 991
3.2. A revolution in hog breeding
4. Economics
4.1. Hello, bottom!
4.2. Optimism vs. pessimism
4.3. Games with the deflator
4.4. Who will eat our fat?
5. Finances
5.1. Two opinion about the same advice
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for September


Dear readers!


Contrary to our expectations, no intensification of anti-Russian rhetoric happened in August. Surprisingly enough August turned out to be quite “calm”. There were no scandals. Although, at the beginning of the month A. Lukashenko, as if he had a presentiment about the usual “bulldozes” from the East and the West, preempted an attack: “It is impossible to exert pressure on me. If you only try to do it, you will get a boomerang effect”. This was addressed to the East. The following warning was sent towards the West: “I would like to warn the Europeans, in case they think they may constantly lay down conditions for us because the relationship between Belarus and Russia has supposedly worsened…and if they think they may “tighten” Lukashenko and he will release all the criminals from prisons and will destroy all the legislation – if they think so, they are mistaken”.
At the end of the month another meeting of heads of the Union state took place in Sochi. No documents were signed. The press-conference expected by journalists was not held, either. Belarusian president commented upon the results of the meeting from Minsk. As described by “SB”, the problem of Belarus geopolitical choice looks as follows: “Alexander Lukashenko mentioned that Russian president had regarded with great favor Belarus aspiration for further development of its relations with the West. Dmitry Medvedev expressed an opinion that it was the matter of a sovereign state. Thus, there is mutual understanding in this case, too”.
The Council of Ministers’ resolution № 991 d/d 28.07.2009 “About some questions regarding purchasing of goods on the territory of the Republic of Belarus” did not live a long life, just as we had supposed. Head of the Belarusian state dealt with the problem in Caesar’s way of doing things: came-saw-canceled, having supported his actions with a wonderful commentary (see in detail “Special case № 991”). Cancellation of the ill-fated resolution happened not least of all as a result of energetic and solidary actions of Belarusian businessmen and independent mass media.
In the July statistical account published on the site of Belstat a drop in the GDP was shown for the first time (the II quarter of 2009 relative to the II quarter of 2008 – 99.6%). The mentioned indicator did not draw the attention of state mass media, which is not surprising. They focused their analytical efforts on the GDP increase for the period from January to July, and during the seven months Belarusian economy had grown by 0.4% if one agreed with the official statistics. Reality of the last figure raises more and more doubts by independent analysts.

IISEPS executive board

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