E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 4, 2009 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of April
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics

3.1. In search of an “unchangeable five-copeck coin”
3.2. . The guard is tired
4. Economics
4.1. The temporary balance point
4.2. A battle for indicators
4.3. The pot calls the kettle black-2
5. Finances
5.1. Pending the price reverse
5.2. Who made a lot of money on the crisis?
6. Bad news
7. Our forecast for May


Dear readers!


Our forecast concerning achievement of the negative value in the GDP dynamics in April proved to be wrong. Belstat managed to produce 101.1% for the first quarter. The Belarusian achievement looks almost fantastic against the background of the Russian quarterly decrease by 9.5%. It is clear that they could not do without small and not so small ruses. The most important one among them consists in the further growth of inventories. These inventories are appraised by the officials at market prices and are conscientiously added to the GDP. Let us not condemn them for it: they are able to fix the fairest prices on the domestically produced goods which are not demanded by anyone even without any market.
The only main indicator fulfilled in January and February (capital investment) “faltered” in April, just as we had predicted. However, non-fulfillment of all the main economic indicators did not reduce the desire of the top officials of the Ministry of Economic Affairs to render a positive annual account. Perhaps, they simply have no choice. As head of state mentioned in his yearly address, “My dear, calm down! I am still able to form the policy inside the state and beyond its borders”. And the policy is still aimed at fulfillment of the main indicators of another year of the five-year plan.
Regardless of the basis’ importance (condition of the economy), the main news topics were generated in April by the superstructure. The question of A. Lukashenko’s forthcoming trip to the Prague founding summit of the European Union program “Eastern Partnership” which was to take place in the capital of the Czech Republic on May, 7 had been the focus of the expert community’s attention during the whole month. Our assumption regarding his being invited came true: on April, 17 in Minsk the invitation was handed to him personally by the Czech Minister for Foreign Affairs K. Schwarzenberg. However, at the very beginning of May it became clear that Belarus would be represented by the first vice-premier V. Semashko at the summit. Thus the value border between Belarus and Europe, the presence of which is being officially repudiated in Minsk, does exist, and head of the Belarusian state was not able to cross it.
The question of Abkhazia and South Ossetia recognition by Belarus did not give us a surprise. It remained up in the air, as well as another Russian loan which found itself in the same situation.

IISEPS executive board

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