E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 3, 2009 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of March
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics


3.1. “You won’t manage to do it while I am still alive”
3.2. The time to say “B”
3.3. A parallel of current importance
4. Economics
4.1. Two documents
4.2. The spring preceding revival
4.3. Look who’s talking!
5. Finances
5.1. “Prices in Poland do not come down”
5.2. Transit expenses
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for April
8. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!



Our forecast concerning the results of the March opinion poll has proved to be entirely true. We expected a considerable decrease in the values of social indicators; however, the fact that the index of material well-being would closely approach its absolute record registered already in November, 1993 became a surprise even for us. Correction of the overstated expectations caused by the crisis turned out to be extremely painful for the Belarusian society.
On the other hand, ratings of A. Lukashenko changed slightly, just as we supposed. At that reduction of the electoral rating happened within the limits of statistical accuracy, and the trust rating lost only 3% which exactly corresponds to the error margin. However, the share of respondents who do not trust A. Lukashenko grew by 4%. Thus our conclusion regarding a certain decrease in ratings of the head of the Belarusian state proves to be correct.
Absence of correlation between the dynamics of the indices and ratings, perhaps, testifies to the changes in the type of support of A. Lukashenko. Under the conditions of a crisis people’s capability to assess the authorities rationally decreases, and significance of the emotional constituent, on the contrary, grows.
The question about inviting A. Lukashenko to Prague in March has never been solved. Let us remind you our forecast: “We suppose that in March A. Lukashenko will try to do everything possible to find himself among the summit participants. It is another matter what will turn out of it. To find himself among the invitees he will have to hold his nose more than once”.
He failed “to hold his nose” or, rather, he did not manage to do it. On March, 17 at the time of visiting the enterprise “Vitebskdrev” head of the Belarusian state once again gave a demonstration of his inability to political compromises. Arguments concerning the fifth column and people’s enemies began to be heard anew. It is going to be difficult to pass the Prague custom-house with such luggage.
However, in March A. Lukashenko managed to go away from “the decision regarding recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia independence”, and it happened in spite of personal meetings with the president and prime minister of Russia! It is possible that absence of progress at the negotiations concerning receiving of another Russian credit became the price of such going away. On the other hand, the eastern wind, as it is known, is more important for Belarus than the western one in view of the presence of the subsidy constituent in it. That is why it does not matter how A. Lukashenko rushes about: under the conditions of the burst out economic crisis subsidies are going to win a victory over investments.
“The Day of Freedom”, as we supposed, did not offer any surprises. The arrangement has not become mass as the Belarusian society today is not yet ready to transform its anxieties into a protest. No “force confrontation of the parties” occurred either on the grounds of absence of a subject interested in such confrontation.
As for the mobile operator Velcom, neither a compromise nor a public conflict (which we hoped for so much) occurred. The “victory” was gained by the operator. Now it is not the right time for the state to create new problems for the foreign investors.

IISEPS executive board

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