E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 12, 2010 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of December
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics

3.1. Who ordered the “picture”?
3.2. “The paternal” model
3.3. In search of a pearl
4. Economics
4.1. Prices are going north
4.2. The main index is a positive one
4.3. A small step ahead other countries
5. Finances
5.1. About the structure of “personal” debts
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for January


Dear readers!

Making our forecast for December we did not suppose, of course, that the events in the Square would take such a dramatic turn, the long-term consequences of which would be not so easy to comprehend instantly. The elections of 2010 proved to be “merry”, however not at all in the sense Mrs. Ermoshina had counted on. The unintended consequences law has not been abrogated by anyone; it applies not only to those who occupy themselves with forecasts analyzing somebody else’s political actions, but also to the political actors themselves. We are far from being sure that the main production director of the fourth presidential elections getting down to liberalization of the electoral legislation a year and a half ago planned the final scene with mass beating up of protesting demonstrators.
As for the vote results forecast announced by the CEC, we managed to score the bull’s eye. There is nothing surprising in it. The main peculiarity of elections under the conditions of guided democracy is their predictability. Actions of all government institutions determining the results of the voting are coordinated from a single center including the actions of the Information-analytical center under the Presidential Administration (IAC). Therefore, in order to successfully forecast the vote results one simply needed to trace the publications of the IAC – that was exactly what we conscientiously occupied ourselves with.
On the other hand, we underestimated the ability of the Belarusians to go into the Square, although we supposed that holding an election campaign in the super-liberal by Belarusian standards mode would increase “political activity of the citizens”. Presence of almost a dozen of democratic candidates did not reduce the number of protesters. The people went out to protest against electoral fraud, in the first place, and against the main falsifier. The number of his opponents and the level of their unity did not play any special role at that.
After the Moscow summit and the coercive dispersal of demonstrators the topic of recognition/non-recognition of the vote results lost its urgency. The West did not recognize the elections, and as for Russia, president D. Medvedev, having made a pause for the sake of propriety, finally sent his congratulations. A similar gesture was not demanded from V. Putin; therefore he did not make it.
As far as the Moscow meeting is concerned, we got carried away a bit trying to predict its outcome, quite possibly under the influence of the TV series “The Godfather”. However, lovers under the sun quarrel just for fun. It is true on the everyday, as well as on the international level. The need for self-preservation is stronger than the need for recognition. It was pointed to by the American psychologist with the Belarusian roots A. Maslow already at his time.

IISEPS executive board

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