E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 11, 2010 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of November
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics

3.1. Who must listen to whom?
3.2. Innovations in the role of the running all through thread
3.3. For everything good and against everything bad
4. Economics
4.1. Optimism of politicians vs. pessimism of economists
4.2. In the advance lag mode
4.3. Economic victories
5. Finances
5.1. Everything is not so bad formally
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for December
8. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!

Our forecast for September has almost completely come true. This does not happen often. Just as we had supposed, the CEC registered all presidential contenders except the Vitebsk businessmen V. Provalsky. According to the official information, the latter did not gather more than 700 signatures. The poet V. Neklyaev also found himself among the registered ones. Heading for the “merry elections” proclaimed by the authorities out of L. Ermoshina’s mouth is being sustained so far. As for V. Neklyaev’s attempt to be among the delegates of the IV All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, it ended without result, just as we had surmised. He was not even admitted by the authorities’ representatives to the meeting of the authorized representatives of Minsk Lenin district. Neither 27 thousand signatures collected in his support in order to nominate him as a candidate for the Assembly, nor the ID of a presidential contender helped. Such an outcome was to be expected. As a comment we can only cite the words from the Bible: “For many are invited, but few are chosen” (Matthew, 22:14).
As for the procedure of presidential contenders’ ID delivery, A. Lukashenko has justified our forecast. He refused to relieve himself of the presidential authority even for a while and to appear before the TV cameras as a presidential contender in the crowd of other aspirants to the top political office. Organizers of the procedure had found an original decision: the ID was received by an authorized representative instead of the candidate.
On November, 1 the authorities redeemed their promise concerning an increase in the first class wage rate and in the minimum official wage. It is difficult to say now to what extent it has quieted the population. As the “Infofocus” was going to press, no data for November had been received from the banking system. However, the demand of the population for currency grew five times during October relative to September. Besides, precious metals bullions disappeared from the Belarusian banks. In our November forecast we supposed that the events would develop exactly according to such a scenario.
The Belarusian-Russian information war did not acquire a second wind in November. The adversaries dug in and passed to trench hostilities. A visit to Minsk of the Russian Minister for Foreign Affairs S. Lavrov in the course of which he did not drop in at the residence of the head of the Belarusian state in 38, K. Marx St. was a true sign that the events were developing in such a way.
Just as we had supposed, no reduction in the number of the opposition presidential contenders by means of “merging and in taking” occurred; however, no serious “inter-candidate” conflicts were registered either.

IISEPS executive board


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