E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 6, 2010 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of June
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics

3.1. “This is the union we have”
3.2. Politicians in the capacity of an economic entity
3.3. In search of another miracle cure
4. Economics
4.1. If I have it, you will have it too
4.2. An anniversary of the “Gref’s program”
4.3. Who has eaten our potatoes?
5. Finances
5.1. Investment daredevilry at the Chinese expense
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for July


Dear readers!


What was called “a meeting at the highest level” during the Soviet times, is not called today other than “a summit”. We had been trying to predict the meeting date of the Belarusian and Russian presidents for two months. Finally it took place in Moscow on June, 11. However, one should possess a rich imagination to consider an evening get-together a summit. None of the questions, which the Belarusian president had hoped so much to solve in the tete-a-tete mode, got moving. Moreover, the fifth gas “war” quite quickly passed from the latent phase into an active one after the Moscow get-together.
On the day of the June issue of the “Infofocus” mailing the battle actions were not fully completed still; however, just as we had supposed, the Customs union began working. The only thing which A. Lukashenko managed to obtain was to join in with it not from July, 1, but from July, 6.
Connection between the gas “war” and the forthcoming presidential elections was actively discussed by the Belarusian, as well as by the Russian analysts. A. Lukashenko did not keep away from it, either. Let us cite an excerpt from the interview for the TV channel “Euronews”: “I notice already in mass media, on the main TV channels (Russian), they have begun articulating the theses of presidential elections in Belarus. Everything is clear: it is pressure at the threshold of the presidential elections in Belarus”. It has not come yet to direct threatening on the part of Russia not to recognize the results of the future elections, however there is still time.
On the other hand, the talks about placement of Eurobonds imperceptibly faded away. Though we had supposed their placement would happen in June and July, a Chinese credit to the amount of $ 15 bln unexpectedly (for us, of course) came to light. If the information about the credit proves to be at least 50% true, then the need for Eurobonds will naturally fall away.
In June two tankers with Venezuelan oil came to the port of Odessa, then the third one arrived and on July, 1 the fourth tanker began getting unloaded. The technical capacity of the port does not make it possible to unload more than four tankers per month. That is why there will be no way to approach the planned 4 mln tons of the Venezuelan oil by the end of the year. However, the subject of energy resources delivery diversification became the top one in June. They even began talking about the condensed gas from Qatar. At that no one has voiced the already achieved financial results from processing of the overseas oil. Most likely there is nothing to boast of.

IISEPS executive board


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