E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 5, 2010 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of May
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics

3.1. 3 – 1 = 2
3.2. The fuss about the control packets of shares
3.3. The victorious step of the large-scale inspection
4. Economics
4.1. An interesting coincidence
4.2. The stagnation stage with a sign of revival
4.3. About the “no matter what; even if it kills you” under the conditions of time shortage
5. Finances
5.1. How much is the money at the market?
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for June
8. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!


Contrary to our forecast, Directive N 4 “About further liberalization directed at emancipation of the economic activity conditions” was not signed. We were mistaken, as well as the head of state, when he was talking about the burning necessity of its approval in the course of Message-2010. Judging by the statement of the Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs A. Filonov, the government fulfilled their task and the proper draft was submitted to the Presidential Administration. However, something must have gone wrong there, and the burning necessity went away.
It is not difficult to understand it. Any practical step in the direction of economic liberalization puts in jeopardy the interests of very concrete people. Therefore, the hidden struggle around the approval of Directive N 4 is going to be protracted. The liberals gained a victory at the stage of the Message-2010 text preparation. To all appearances, it is the turn of the conservatives now.
It is amazing how quietly Europe behaved in May. It “forgot” to evaluate the elections into the local councils which had been held in Belarus (individual statements of some politicians do not count). No final decision concerning the format of the Belarusian delegation for participation in the parliamentary assembly “Eastern partnership” (Euronest) was made either. In connection with the above mentioned, our forecast regarding the reaction of the Belarusian authorities has not come true.
As opposed to Europe, development of the events at the Russian direction “reminded of a manuscript by the composer Franz Liszt where in the first page it was indicated to play “fast”, in the second – “very fast”, in the third – “much faster”, in the fourth – “as fast, as possible” (I. Ilf and E. Petrov). In this connection it is impossible not to mention the decisions’ cascade concerning the Customs union. However, just as we had supposed, the summit meeting did not take place. The talks about the necessity of its holding also disappeared without being noticed. Russia continued demonstrating a rigorous style with respect to its ally who had lost the monopoly of the right to protect the interests of Russia at the western direction after the change of power in Ukraine.
Our doubts regarding the prospects of the legal action brought by Minsk before the Supreme Economic Court of the CIS concerning the lawfulness of Russia introducing export duties for petrochemical products came true. No final decision was taken in May.

IISEPS executive board

Download full version (in Russian only)