E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 10, 2011 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of October
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics

3.1. They love us, they love us not…
3.2. Competition vs. collaboration
3.3. From Plato and Aristotle to Sukalo & Co.
4. Economics
4.1. Who is going to pay for consolidation?
4.2. A different view outside the window
4.3. Went too far
5. Finances
5.1. The crisis persuaded to change the tactics
6. Our forecast for November
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!

Topicality of the issue of A. Lukashenko’s electoral rating was confirmed at the beginning of October by its possessor. In the course of the press conference for the Russian regions’ mass media the Belarusian “father” had said a lot of things in his traditional manner which he must have regretted later. In particular, he confessed that the results of the presidential elections of 2010 had been rigged: “In truth Belarusian president was supported by 79.9%, in reality – over 80%. It was honest”. Refusing to admit a drop in his own rating head of state thereby asserts that the level of his electoral support does not depend on the condition of the Belarusian economy. However if it is so, then for what reason were so many efforts to reach “the sacred figure” (an average salary equaling $ 500) made? The efforts whose destructive consequences the Belarusian economy still cannot recover from. During the time which passed after the September opinion poll the price increase continued in Belarus, which means that a decrease in the population’s real income continued, too. November, 1 did not become an exception in this respect, either: public transportation, medications, alcoholic beverages, tobacco goods and mobile communication went up. As the IISEPS researches of many years show, any leap in prices for socially important goods affects A. Lukashenko’s rating. Our dear state has already begun to mass-produce advances in prices. After that one should not be surprised that the person who only yesterday was perceived by the majority of Belarusians as a benefactor, today begins to transform in the eyes of the population into the main source of all misfortunes. That is why one does not need the insight of Nostradamus to predict a further decrease in the rating of “the only politician”. As he is the only one, he should be responsible for everything.
Our hopes for closing of “the list of people convicted of December, 19 case” did not come true. Moreover, as the inadequate reaction of the authorities to the “People’s gathering” proved, repressions are becoming the principle method of maintaining stability in the state. In October Belarusian parliamentarians surreptitiously and urgently entered legislative amendments considerably extending the repressive potential of the servants of the people. However, contrary to expectations, the last signature was not affixed to the initiatives of the parliamentarians. The impression is that the amendments are assigned the role of a “harbored grudge”in negotiating with the West, and in this sense our prognosis concerning readiness of the Belarusian party to make political concessions was partly confirmed. The IMF is an international financial institution which is above politics, but not to such an extent.
The “People’s gathering”, just as we had supposed, did not live up to the positive expectations of its organizers. The total number of its participants did not exceed several thousand people. As we have repeatedly mentioned in our analytical materials, Belarusian society finds itself in two conditions: dormant (the main one) and excited (the temporary one). At that transition from the first condition to the second one is not directly connected with a drop in the standard of living. Belarusian society gets excited and thus finds political subjectness in response to the loss of political subjectness by the authorities; however, nothing of the kind is being observed in Belarus at the moment.

IISEPS executive board

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