E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 7, 2011 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of July
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics

3.1. Why isn’t Belarus successful?
3.2. An uprising of negligent directors
4. Economics
4.1. A compromise is reached, the problems remain
4.2. A Russian version of the bad balance
4.3. А. Kudrin vs. М. Myasnikovich
5. Finances
5.1. Who establishes prices?
6. Our forecast for August
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!


Just as we had conjectured in the previous issue of the “Infofocus”, the feverish demand diminished. The level of consumer durables purchasing in June exceeded almost twofold the one of January and February, but appreciably decreased in comparison with May. Any craze, especially the one connected with financial charges, cannot be long by definition. Without an ability to adapt to external changes a human being simply would not be able to survive. Belarusians possess the adaptation ability in plenty, making up with its help for the lack of aspiration for the active resistance to the negative external changes. As for safeguarding people’s confidence which A. Lukashenko talked about at the meeting on July, 8, the authorities apparently do not manage to solve this problem so far. It is impossible to win people’s confidence by means of using force outside the legal framework against participants of silent protest actions.
What we called in June “protests of a new tide” came to its logical end in July. The revolution of clapping one’s hands did not gain a victory and thus did not live up to the expectations of some independent experts. It is rather difficult for us to understand what such expectations are built upon. We have already mentioned more than once that the Belarusian society will not be able to get out of the authoritarian pit on the European democratic site with the help of a nonrecurrent measure (“The Square” is a generalized symbol of such a nonrecurrent measure). Historically the leading part in the downfall of authoritarian regimes within the borders of the Russian empire was played not by the active protest of the lower strata, but rather by their refusal to support the authorities. Precisely the refusal created the conditions under which the authorities proved to be unable “to rule as before”. Nevertheless, the very fact of emergence of a “new tide” on the doleful political surface should only be welcomed. It signals that certain processes of self-organization are going on in the depths of the Belarusian society.
We were not mistaken either regarding the ability of the Belarusian authorities to understand the nature of the challenge the country is facing today. Absence of a full-fledged anti-crisis program follows from this. Endless declarations about attainment of the equilibrium rate of the Belarusian ruble are substituted for its elaboration. As for the actions within the framework of the program worked up as an essential condition for obtaining a credit from the EurAsEC fund, according to the July statement of A. Kudrin, Russian minister of finance, they do not lead to the country’s recovery from the recession.

IISEPS executive board

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