E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 5, 2011 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of May
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics

3.1. A ton of sugar for 6 minutes!
3.2. Yu. Andropov: “I’ll be back”
4. Economics
4.1. The world crisis and the Soviet gauge
4.2. Three scenarios
4.3. How to hold back Belarusian Michurins?
5. Finances
5.1. Why was Ch. Jarvis mistaken?
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for June
8. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!


Just as we had supposed, May proved to be rich in political decisions made “under the influence of a particular person’s emotions”. Among the main decisions let us mark out the policy of economy efficiency increasing by means of active adoption of the methods of the unforgettable Yu. Andropov enunciated by A. Lukashenko on May, 6. We may only hope that the administrative delight which has seized Belarusian officials will limit itself to the struggle against violators of labor discipline, and things will not go as far as the revival of Andropov’s “punitive psychiatry” that allowed to incarcerate ideological opponents of the Soviet rule in mental hospitals with the diagnosis “schizophrenic syndrome of aggressive anti-Sovietism”. The government decision to win a victory over the crisis by raising social payments is no less significant. If we remember that the present problems of the Belarusian economy were caused by the policy of the “unheard-of social generosity” which was pursued in the country during the year of the presidential elections, it is not difficult to predict the consequences of another government innovation.
April assurances of the National bank managers concerning the return of currency to the exchange offices were not realized; however, our pessimistic forecast regarding it was confirmed. Does it mean that, as far as financial questions are concerned, the proficiency level of the “Infofocus” editorial board’s employees is higher than the proficiency level of the top-officials of the country’s main bank? We would not hurry with such a conclusion. Officials are supposed to radiate optimism in the performance of their official duty, and this is exactly what they are constantly doing. As for the editorial boards’ employees, they can earn their living only if they correctly assess any actions of the authorities’ representatives. Unfortunately, events in Belarus begin to develop according to the pessimistic scenario that is why the necessary accuracy of forecasts makes the editorial board radiate pessimism.
The above mentioned visually illustrates our feeble attempts to predict any positive advance in the cashless foreign currency market, and a failure with the Russian loan, the first tranche of which was expected by us at the end of May. Optimism is not repaid today, and not only professional Nostradamuses, but also ordinary citizens who place their hard-earned money in state banks should remember about it.
Our forecast pertaining to the termination of the legal trials came true, and it did not add to the optimism concerning Belarusian justice, which is no wonder. In this case, though, we would have been only happy to be mistaken. On May, 31 Belarusian authorities turned to the IMF for another loan. Normal human logic suggests that without pardoning the people convicted for the events of December, 19 a positive decision of the pro-American financial organization is not to be expected. However, such is the nature of human beings – they always search after a reason for optimism.

IISEPS executive board

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