E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 10, 2012 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of October
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. The turnout scandal
3.2. Communards at “Kommunarka”
3.3. Lovers under the sun quarrel just for fun
4. Economics
4.1. The hard landing of the soft monetary policy
4.2. A Russian version of the political and economic cycle
4.3. The sweet word “modernization”
5. Finances
5.1. A stable rate at the expense of 45% per annum
6. Our forecast for November
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!


Just as we had surmised, October presented us with a whole bunch of coverage opportunities in the issue of the recent Belarusian-Russian confrontation. As it is known, a hedge between keeps friendship green. Hard as A. Lukashenko tried to convince himself after the meeting with V. Putin in Sochi that “we have to stick together, we, if truth be told, two Russian peoples, otherwise we will be beaten one at a time”, the question about the duties for the petrochemical products shipped to Europe under the guise of solvents was not decided. In October the matter did not come to another Belarusian-Russian “war”, this time the solvent one. One and a half billion dollars is not money for Russia. Gold and forex reserves of the Central Bank of Russia are overfilled, that is why there is no need to be in a hurry and to bustle. All the more so because there is very little time left till the end of the year, and the oil and petrochemical products delivery balance for the first quarter of 2013 is not signed yet, and Russia refuses to fulfill it in full in the fourth quarter. It has every reason to do so as Belarus fails to meet its commitments on petrochemical products deliveries to Russia.
In September the balance of foreign trade in goods turned out to be negative again – minus $ 358 million. There is already a tendency! Social stability in an export-oriented country is the function of the foreign trade balance. Today Belarusians actively master this functional dependence. Contrary to our expectations, no growth in currency boom occurred in October. The Central Bank managed to stop the process of converting ruble savings into currency ones with the help of high ruble deposit rates. However, the medal “For Victory over Panic” has its reverse, too. High deposit rates are automatically transformed into high interest on credits. And this is already putting an end to the plans on modernization of the economy.
As for the decrease in the population’s income, contrary to our expectations, the first portent appeared already in September, not in December. Thanks to Belstat which communicated a 1% decrease in real wages in September.
Unfortunately, our pessimism concerning the impossibility of real steps for stopping the confrontation “on the western front” was verified in every detail. In October the Council of the European Union extended sanctions against president A. Lukashenko and his inner circle; the European Parliament made a decision about non-recognition of the new composition of the Belarusian parliament; the IMF mission left the signals of prime minister M. Myasnikovich about the desirability of issuing a new loan out of consideration. The Belarusian party in its turn hinted out of the mouth of minister for foreign affairs V. Makej at a possibility of recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

IISEPS executive board

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