E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 7, 2012 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of July
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Summary of life “By own wits”
3.2. Eurasian false start
4. Economics
4.1. Aid in exchange to renunciation of sovereignty
4.2. Russia joined WTO
4.3. On competition in the outer space and on Earth
5. Finances
5.1. Debates as determiner of economic growth
6. Our forecast for August
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!


The most recent data reflecting the salary growth dynamics were published by Belstat on July 24. In July, the average salary has grown by additional 200 thousand rubles and made up $ 452 at rate. Thus, the struggle for maintaining the head of state’s electoral rating has continued. However, the regular first class rate increase scheduled on August 1 had to be re-scheduled to September. One could hardly bite more than one can chew. One has to take into consideration the economic environment. Meanwhile, the problem of adequate understanding of the current events by the top rulers of the country remains acute and a good proof to it was A. Lukashenko’s speech at the solemn meeting on July 2 dedicated to the Independence Day. The Belarusian power continues to see “the strong state” as the only panacea for external and internal challenges, notwithstanding the Country Economic Memorandum “Economic Transformation for Growth” prepared for the Republic of Belarus by the World Bank with participation of the Government and the National Bank. The main message of the many paged document is that “the Belarusian model of economic development” based on the domination of the state property has played out. But the texts of A. Lukashenko’s speeches are prepared by the Presidential Executive Office and not by the Government. It might be an explanation to the full discrepancy of the two key July documents.
Our forecast on the mild variant of the development of the situation connected with the “solvents and diluents” problem has proved fully true. The severe statements of the Russian Government Chairman D. Medvedev in the style of “if there was offence, the offenders shall receive punishment and the economic interests are to be restored” failed to stop the trafficking of the Russian petrochemicals through the border of the Republic-the-Partisaness. The Belarusian cat Vaska is listening but keeps on eating. This is the type of relationship within the borders of the Union State. One cannot but recall the darling of the president’s steward I. Titenkov here: that is the company Torgexpo with the associated echelons of duty-free vodka.
Regarding our expectation of the increase of the GNP growth rate, they haven’t proved true yet. According to Belstat’s report, GNP in the first half-year grew by 2.9% as against the same period of the previous year, whereas the GNP increment rate over the five months was leveling at 3.1%. In June, the current price GNP volume made up 40.5 trillion rubles against 41.6 trillion in May. But we have a chance for rehabilitation. Remember, in the first quarter of 2011 GNP increased by 10% and in the second quarter, by 11.4%, whereas in the third quarter, only by 1.7%. The recent Belstat data were quoted based on June, hence, due to the low GNP growth rate in the third quarter of 2011 the main economic macroparameter may still grow up.
One could hardly find a task easier than forecasting of the election campaign scenarios in Belarus. On the 9th of July the process of creation of territorial electoral committees of 9-13 members was over. Out of 199 representatives delegated by the opposition parties 48 persons (24%) got on the list. Confer: the pro-presidential ROO “Belaya Rus” delegated 117 persons, 106 (90.5%) of them became committee members. It is all “in full compliance with the Constitution”. No doubt!

IISEPS executive board

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