E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 6, 2012 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of June
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. On pluses and minuses of a strong state
3.2. “Working heads up”
4. Economics
4.1. The Brussels summit echo
4.2. The stirring ruble
4.3. In wait for the second coming
5. Finances
5.1. Why don’t potatoes grow?
6. Our forecast for July
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!


Our forecast with regard to the IISEPS June poll results proved totally true. The reserve for the growth of the positive moods in the community is exhausted. Among the three social indices, only one index (the Financial Standing Index) increased by a statistically significant value (+7 points). The Expectations Index showed a token increase (+2 points), and the Policy Correctness Index decreased by 5 points. Moreover, all the three indices remained in the negative field: -19, -9 and -22 correspondingly. In such ambiguous environment a positive trend of A. Lukashenko’s electoral rating registered over the last two quarters had no continuation: March – 34.5%, June – 29.7%. It is not by chance that the head of state speaks about stability practically in each his speech. These are Freudian lapses. The key factor of stability maintenance is the growth of the household income, but there are no additional resources in the Belarusian economical bins any more.
The situation gets even worse, as the external environment is worsening. Oil prices continued to fall throughout May, and only on the last day of the month there was a slight upgrade from the 2012 bottom line. The stock brokers were encouraged by the results of the EC Summit. However, no breakthrough decisions were taken. Creation of another loophole for currency issue cannot count for such a decision. The Government of Russia is actively developing anti-crisis measures, and the main measure is reduction of the expenditure budget, which, certainly, will have an adverse effect on the Belarusian export.
The long-suffering third tranche of EuroAsEC credit has been finally obtained. V. Putin fulfilled his promise. However, another “gift” from Russia, as we supposed, was followed by new proposals to return to “the issue of introduction of common currency” in the view of the fact that “the Belarusian system will not survive a second crisis” (A. Surikov, the ambassador for Russia in Belarus). A similar proposal was made by the Prime Minister D. Medvedev. It goes without saying, A. Lukashenko was quick on the draw: “The fact that we don’t have the Russian ruble today is not fatal”. Lovers’ quarrels are soon mended. Over a 20-year history of diplomatic relations (the anniversary fell in June) the form and matter of the brotherhood have not suffered any significant change.
The topic of phenomenal breakthrough on the field of the export of “solvents and diluents” enjoyed special attention of the Belarusian exerts and analysts. Even Russia had to acknowledge the existence of this topic officially. The representatives of the Belarusian official circles, on the contrary, ignored that acute topic. The only exclusion is the chairman of the State Customs Committee of Belarus A. Shpilevsky. But he emphatically waived “the illegal supplies” and explained his determination that “it just can’t be true”.

IISEPS executive board

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