E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 11, 2013 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of November
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Quite a conservative forecast
3.2. Square peg into a round hole
4. Economics
4.1. China: time to change the economic growth model
4.2. “The slowdown has a structural character”
4.3. Country dishonourable leaders
5. Finances
5.1. A kind of gold and forex reserves
6. Our forecast for December
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!
Probably frightened of their own determination, the government revised the plan of housing construction for 2014. Instead of initial 2.5 million square meters plan there is a new figure of 6.5 million square meters in the last project. This is quite a difference in planning! But these are only projects. At the time of completion of this “Infofocus” issue, the final variant of economic indicators for 2014 still wasn’t approved by the head of state. Meanwhile prices continue to rise. The first day of the last month was traditionally celebrated by a rise in price of public transport and cigarettes. Since December 6 the telecommunication services tariffs will be raised. As for salary, in October it didn’t change. The increase of gas and electricity tariffs announced by Deputy Prime Minister A. Kalinin didn’t happen, which doesn’t call off their growth in the near future. As we assumed, the process of consumer demand compression speeds up.
Contrary to our expectations, the modernization subject once again was among the top ones in November. Its reincarnation began after A. Lukashenko’s visit on JSC Borisovdrev. The visit took place on Friday, November 9, and three days later, on Monday, the Council of Ministers approved the list of woodworking enterprises which will receive additional loans secured by the government. Belarusian modernizers are not going to be left without money in the year to come as well. “All in all we plan to allocate about 132 trillion rubles (or $13.5 billion) for the implementation of modernization plans in all directions in 2014,” declared Prime Minister M. Myasnikovich. “As one of the main sources of funds for the economy modernization we consider direct foreign investments of $4.5 billion, including $2.5 billion received due to privatization”. In other words the fright caused by the demonstrative flogging in Borisov forced government members to make another redistribution of budgetary funds, this time in favor of modernization projects.
Creation of the interdepartmental working group headed by the chairman of the State Control Commitee A. Yakobson is one of consequences of the demonstrative flogging in Borisov. The group started to work at full speed. Its main conclusions fully confirmed our pessimistic forecasts about the prospects of woodworking industry. Let’s remind a quote from A. Lukashenko’s Statement 2013: “The program of woodworking industry modernization will end by the 7th of November this year, when the industry will begin to work with a good profit. After this boundary we have to show to the people the examples of decent work.” The interdepartmental working group did not succeed in revealing “decent work” examples. And if there is no “decent work” how can we speak about any profit?
Our forecast concerning the head of state’s public disengagement from the process of emergency state forming in economy came true as well. He made no comments either on any rise in prices, or on any assumed budget expenditures reduction in 2014.
IISEPS executive board

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