E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 8, 2013 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of August
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Baumgertner’s detention as the mirror of Belarusian society
3.2. Carrot and stick: sometimes together, sometimes successively, and sometimes alternately
4. Economics
4.1. On the pros and cons of domestic consumption growth
4.2. “The current economy model is exhausted”
4.3. We’re keeping up with the schedule of labor productivity, and this is the most important thing
5. Finances
5.1. The revenues of the budget send an SOS
6. Our forecast for September
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!
Predicting the July decision of JSC Uralkali’s Board of Directors on the termination of potash fertilizers’ export sale through JSC Belarusian Potash Company, we assumed that events will not develop favorably for Belarus. Certainly, such a large-scale escalation of the conflict of two business entities, which moreover developed into a full-scale Belarusian-Russian “war” in such an extraordinary way, was a complete surprise for us. The Belarusian model obviously enters a period of instability. The fact of the beginning of modernization, this peculiar gesture of despair, shows the exhaustion of its potential.
The appeal to the theme of “strengthening of the fight against corruption” is another evidence of the exhaustion of the Belarusian model. Cadres, as we know, are a key to everything, but very often they are not effective enough. That is why any major changes very quickly rest on the deficiency of personal resources. The authorities try to overcome it by the carrot and stick policy. August, as we have assumed it, was not an exception. Let’s mark out only two events: the head of state’s decree providing the State Control Committee the right to suspend or even to stop extrajudicially the activities of any company for ensuring national security and securing of the information on officials’ salary growth. According to informal facts the salaries of ministerial chiefs increased by 50-100%.
The deficiency of personal resources should be the explanation for the transfer of top officials’ attention from technical side of modernization to organizational and economic sides, without which “the most advanced equipment and technologies will not work effectively” (P. Prokopovich).
The low base effect, generated by the termination of solvents’ supply in the second half of 2012, begins to affect macroeconomic indicators positively. The decrease in GDP has stopped. The export subsidence has stopped as well. If in January-June it fell by 24.1% compared to the same period last year, the decrease in January-July was only 23.3%. Change of a negative tendency to positive one is always nice, even if the reason for it is the low base effect.
IISEPS executive board

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