E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 7, 2013 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of July
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Inviting investors to the world of stagnation and laziness
3.2. “This project ends the problem”
4. Economics
4.1. Chinese experience in building cities-the-ghosts
4.2. State employees as the main factor of the economic growth
4.3. Usually GDP and GNP differ slightly
5. Finances
5.1. “Tons of money” has already been thrown in
6. Our forecast for August
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!
On July 19 receiving head of the National Bank N. Ermakova with a report, A. Lukashenko expounded his take on the market principles of the exchange rate formation mechanism: “The population and market participants must understand: when the demand is great – the price is higher, the demand is low or there is no demand – the price is lower, including for currency. Money is goods, too”. However, demand, especially demand for currency, is formed to a considerable extent under the influence of subjective factors, one of which is the level of the population’s inflation expectations. Belarusian economy supplies more and more signals about the approaching weakening of the ruble with every passing day, and the population actively picks up the signals. Nevertheless, just as we had supposed, in spite of the private bank depositors’ active redirecting to foreign-currency deposits the ruble withstood in July.
It seems the government has defined the main estimated figures of socio-economic development and the budget for 2014, although with violation of the term set by it. The June version of the forecast concept presupposes the GDP growth by 9.6%. The figure was not pulled out of a hat. Its source is the decision taken at the IV All-Belarusian People’s Assembly stipulating the GDP growth by 62-68% within five years. In the updated version of the forecast concept the GDP growth level is reduced up to 5.7%, which means actual recognition of the impossibility of complying with the decision of the popular assembly. Of course, no comments followed, as well as any reconsideration of the plan figures for the current year. The government under the guidance of the presidential administration is engrossed in the everyday matters thus displaying its inadequacy.
In full conformity with the forecast, the amendments to the Administrative Violations Code adopted at the end of June stipulating liability for illegal holding of public opinion polls did not “become stale”: on July 5, 2013 the Constitutional Court within the confines of the preliminary Constitutional control found the law conforming to the Constitution by its Decision N Р-838/2013. Only one signature is needed for the amendments to come into effect…
IISEPS executive board

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