E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 4, 2013 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of April
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Mutual cover-up and its indispensable consequences
3.2. “We are the most decent people; please excuse our lack of modesty…”
4. Economics
4.1. Time for comedy actors
4.2. Compulsion to innovations
4.3. The economy of conjunctural goods
5. Finances
5.1. The forgotten concept
6. Our forecast for May
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!


The stock reserves continued to grow in April, although their increment rate decreased appreciably: February – 8.9%, March – 7.8%, April – 4.5%. Worsening of a number of financial indicators has become the consequence of the reserves growth. In comparison with January and February 2012 the net profit in industry was reduced on the whole by 41.6%, profitability of sales – from 11.2% to 7.7%. In the Address-2013 A. Lukashenko emphasized that he “had not revoked his demand for the government to be one big Ministry of Trade”. At that he reminded officials about their assurances that everything should be alright when the warm seasons (spring, summer) came. The snow melted long ago, but nothing is alright so far. A decrease in the increment rate of the stock reserves is connected, just as we have supposed, with the washing-out of current assets. According to the analytical review of the National Bank, 57.8% of enterprises that participated in the survey stated the insufficient provision with current assets in March (in February – 55.5%). In the opinion of the economist D. Krug, active selling of hard currency to the enterprises also testifies to the shortage of current assets.
Bodily movements in the western direction continued in April. Let us cite the news items from the rubric “Chronology of the Main Events” following in date order: a NATO delegation was on a visit in Minsk; Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden C. Bildt said that the embassy of Sweden would soon resume its work in Belarus; Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus V. Makei met in Vitebsk Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia E. Rinkevichs. Of course, in spite of some optimists’ expectations, no real actions in home policy (e.g. discharge of political prisoners) followed. Moreover, presentation of the concept of the macroeconomic reforms program announced by Minister of Economic Affairs N. Snopkov did not take place in Washington. It is an obvious sign that A. Lukashenko still believes in the possibility to reverse the situation in the economy by means of technological modernization of enterprises.
A cut in consumption of engine fuel and spirits continued against the March income growth of the population. In our forecast for April we suggested two possible reasons for the mentioned paradox: a decrease in the numbers of the male population owing to their leaving for Russia to work there and an increase in the excise rates (by 34.5% for spirits). If the second reason were true, then the registered tendency would exhaust its resource in April due to the habituation effect. However, it became stronger, and thus the credibility of the second reason (outflow of the male population) increased.
IISEPS executive board

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