E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 8, 2014 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of August
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Another order to get a move on
3.2. Forgotten directive
4. Economics
4.1. Dollar passed to the active attack
4.2. Mobilization of economy starts with mobilization of finance
4.3. Government’s optimism vs. EEC experts’ optimism
5. Finances
5.1. Annual inflation plan achieved successfully
6. Our forecast for September
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!
Despite M. Myasnikovich’s statement on finalization of work on the decree “On ramping up efforts to combat mismanagement and on toughening requirements to executives of all levels”, the long-suffering document wasn’t signed. So it was all sizzle and no steak, and by sizzle we mean another discussion that was held by the head of state on the 12th of August. The discussion resulted in the decision “to complete the document during the third quarter in order to make it operative since the fourth quarter”.
Let us remind you that this document is based on the idea that an improving of efficiency of management in all economic sectors can be achieved by “upgrading requirements and toughening punishment to executives”. However, numerous putting-offs of the decree signing show that A. Lukashenko is unable to upgrade his requirements even to his own subordinates. Thus there are no guarantees that another date won’t be put off. Then how can there be any question of “improving efficiency of management in all economic sectors”?
In August the government resembled a “black box” as there was no information on budget 2015 development. The sitting of the presidium of Council of Ministers, where the project of republican budget for 2015 was discussed, was held on the 2nd of September. One can judge government’s plans only by this sentence: “Among the priorities of the project of republican budget for 2015 are: the increase of salaries in public sector with the consideration of consumer price index growth; realization of supplementary measures, approved by the head of state, aiming on the support of families with children; step-by-step cut-back of cross-subsidization; and maintaining of state support of real economy”.
As we have supposed it, government forgot about the social obligations, which were discussed on the IV All-Belarusian People’s Assembly. Salaries will grow, but only in public sector and within the bounds of consumer price index growth, which means that in real terms they won’t grow at all.
According to our forecast August was marked by numerous mutual reproaches of the founders of the Union State. These reproaches concerned the observance of mutual economic obligations. The order of Russian President V. Putin “On adopting special economic measures to provide for security of the Russian Federation”, which was signed on the 6th of August, added fuel to the fire. N. Fyodorov, Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, made a harsh statement about the fact that Russia has all needed instruments “to block possible threats of breaching its embargo on food products imported from the European Union via the Customs Union”.
But Belarusian side had an answer for the claims of their only ally. Let us restrict ourselves to the example of unlawful custom clearance of tires. This example was mentioned by M. Myasnikovich during his visit to tire producer OAO Belshina in Bobruisk: “This is a very serious question – unlawful work of our partners in the Customs Union. They blatantly violate agreements and international rules, and they come onto the market with the products, which were customs cleared dishonestly, particularly on the territory of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. This creates the unfair competition. Customs clearance is carried out in violation of the basic rules”.
IISEPS executive board

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