E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 7, 2015 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of July
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. An end to faint reproaches
3.2. A struggle for brands
4. Economics
4.1. Three top events of July
4.2. Russian economy in the search of the bottom
4.3. Officially: a recession; unofficially: a system crisis
5. Finances
5.1. Population as a pure currency seller
6. Our forecast for August
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!

As we’ve supposed it, the Central Electoral Committee had registered initiative groups of all sane presidential contenders (sane by Belarusian measures, naturally). The forthcoming electoral campaign promises to be “boring”. As a proof of this we’d like to mention that A. Lukashenko stated on the 4th of August that he refused to participate in the electoral campaign. The reason should be recognized as a respectable one: he feels uncomfortable and ashamed when he needs to talk about himself. What else could he talk about? Commitments, taken on the IV All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, are flubbed, and there is nothing positive to expect in the future.
The IMF mission visited Minsk in the first half of July. We should recognize that our optimism wasn’t justified. The probability of receiving a credit is still high, but the visit of fond experts resulted in a list of conditions, which Belarusian side is not ready to fulfill completely in the nearest future. Especially when Russia doesn’t refuse to help the Belarusian model and its architect to keep the lights on. Receipt of $ 760 billion by the Ministry of Finance on the 28th of July proves it. The credit didn’t stay for too long on the accounts of treasury, because on the 4th of August it was transferred for Eurobond repayment.
As for our speculations about “steps towards the main creditor” (the U.S.), we hadn’t wait for too long. On the 3rd of August A. Lukashenko met with three American congressmen. During the meeting D. Rohrabacher, the U.S. Representative for California, noted that two states “have a lot of common spheres for cooperation”. Amid the general strengthening of the Western vector of Belarusian foreign policy we’d like to expect that at least a part of that cooperation will come true.
The President of Russia V. Putin confirmed his reputation of a man who doesn’t leave his people in trouble by the credit of $ 760 billion.

IISEPS executive board

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