E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 5, 2015 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of May
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Here is the level of adequacy in the anniversary year
3.2. 16.8 CVs for one vacancy
4. Economics
4.1. Economic growth withheld by a debt of $ 200 trillion
4.2. “It won’t collapse, it will slowly degrade”
4.3. Country leaders give opposite signals
5. Finances
5.1. At the height of fodder procurement government has no time for reforms
6. Our forecast for June
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!
As we’ve supposed it in our forecast for May, inertial scenario of economy development was decisively ratified by A. Lukashenko as the strategic one. The head of state set the record straight in the talk which he delivered during the 7th Congress of Belarus’ Federation of Trade Unions.
Let us make a brief outline of his speech:
– Belarus is a country with open economy. At present economy encounters certain difficulties, which are primarily due to the crisis at our main trade partners.
– Crises come and go, but Belarus has a unique experience of overcoming economic recessions. This experience is based on preservation of factories and workers associations.
– Belarusian industry’s production has normal quality and corresponding price. The main task is to sell it.
– At the heart of economic success is labor discipline. Chief managers talk too much, but Decree N 5 will “plumb that hole”. It allows not only to “bend” managers of any level, but also gives those “bent” managers the right to “bend” their subordinates as they wish.
– Trade unions are the main guard of state ideas, including the questions of discipline. That is why before the end of the year trade union organizations should be created even in private companies.
A. Lukashenko didn’t pass over in silence the forthcoming presidential elections. Government’s task for this hard times is “to give people hope and confidence that tomorrow won’t be worse than today”.
Inertial scenario presumes a renunciation to electorate mobilization during the forthcoming presidential election campaign. Thus, as we’ve supposed it, celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Victory didn’t give a start to election campaign. To realize it you can simply compare A. Lukashenko’s speeches during grand meetings dedicated to Victory anniversaries in 2010 and 2015. Five years ago his speech was mainly based on a report on successes in economic and social spheres.
According to our forecast, April trend on ruble strengthening changed to a trend on its weakening, which is confirmed by the statistics of the National Bank: on the 1st of April dollar rate was 14,700 rubles, on the 1st of May – 14,270 rubles and on the 1st of June – 14,890 rubles.