E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 4, 2015 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of April
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. “As for wood waste, we have to make up our minds”
3.2. Waiting for a “boring” presidential campaign
4. Economics
4.1. The biggest “bubbles” in history
4.2. Two-fold growth of salaries amid a seven-fold drop of incomes
4.3. Ban on modernization
5. Finances
5.1. Alarmist moods and strengthening of ruble
6. Our forecast for May
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!
On the 29th of April A. Lukashenko addressed another annual message to Belarusian people and the National Assembly. As we’ve supposed, the head of state confirmed the change of social contract which was announced earlier. Instead of incomes’ growth in return for loyalty the state decided in a one-way fashion to give survival in return for loyalty. “Peace and development” – under this title the text of the message was published in the press. Let us limit ourselves to one quote: “Thanks God, that today fate of our country is not determined in the battle-fronts or in the city squares. Our future is defined in a different peaceful field – in economy”.
For the first time over the last 14 years the word “modernization” wasn’t mentioned in the message. A unique experience. In the Message-2014 “modernization” was mentioned on 14 occasions, in the Message-2013 – on 49! Text analysis of the Message testifies that the leader of the country finally acknowledged that modernization of state enterprises within the framework of the Belarusian model is just money to burn. As for the money, there is a problem. Thus the program of stimulation of economic growth comprising 10 articles, none of which provides for financial backing. Thus the catastrophic drop of investments into cars and equipment in the first quarter of the year. This is the revolutionary novelty of the next stage of development of the Belarusian economic model.
In the program of stimulation of economic growth there was a mention of “Favorable business climate”. However despite our expectations this article turned out to be the shortest one. Only three standard paragraphs demanding the government to decrease “the number of documents, reports, agreements and statistics on all levels and stages”. Even proclamation of these basic measures for stimulation of small and medium-sized business tired out the speaker, thus his final remark destined to the government: “I have no time to repeat myself. I think you remember what I’ve said”.
On the 30th of April Ministry of Finance received the state financial credit amounting to RUR 6.2 billion. But this is only a drop in the ocean! Such money transfers won’t provide stability for the Belarusian model. That is why heralds of the Palace of Independence owner are obliged to expand their mendicancy methods. In particular, on April 16-19 Belarusian delegation took part in the annual sitting of IMF Board of Directors, where they were assured on readiness to discuss conditions of another credit extension. But these are only promises, and it would have been nice to have received money yesterday. But as we’ve supposed there would be no hurried decisions from potential creditors (including Russian ones).
IISEPS executive board

Download full version (in Russian only)