IF ELECTIONS TAKE PLACE TOMORROW

A change of the social attitudes trend did not tell in any way either upon the electoral rating or upon the trust rating of the head of state (Tables 1-2). It seems that the ratings have been living their own life for two years already, and this life is not at all connected with the life of common people, i.e. the life of those whose opinions on the authorities form the ratings.

Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: "Do you trust the president of Belarus?", %

Variant of answer	11'06	06'08	12'08	03'09	06'09	09'09	12'09	03'10
I do	60.3	47.3	48.4	45.4	50.6	49.2	50.9	49.8
I do not	26.0	39.5	34.1	38.1	35.3	37.2	36.8	37.0
DA/NA	13.7	13.2	17.5	16.5	14.1	13.6	12.3	13.2

There is a certain sense in the mentioned stability. When the waves of the world economic crisis which has appeared no one knows where from are rolling around, when the salary amount and regularity of its payment begin to depend not on the decision of the enterprise head, but on the will of mysterious "shareholders" and "investors" who, by the way, can pick up their cases at any moment and evaporate in an unknown direction, the population feels its defenselessness more and more. No need for mutual solidarity arises under such conditions. Belarusians are quite rational, and therefore they do not want to expose themselves to the struggle risk and to transform their everyday complaints into political demands. That is why assertions of some opposition politicians that the society "is tired" and will not vote at the forthcoming elections for the acting president only reflect their lack of knowledge of the Belarusian social reality.

The mean value of the trust rating in 2009 made up 49%. At the moment of social indicators maximum decrease (March, 2009) it swerved from the mean value by 3.6 percentage points (Table 2) which is close to statistical discrepancy. As for the electoral rating (Table 1), it did not virtually change even in March. For the sake of comparison, values of the ratings during the year of the third presidential elections are given in the first columns of the tables. The difference equaling almost 20 percentage points as compared to the mean value for the electoral rating is the reserve which the head of state can hope for having started up the electoral mobilization mechanism. The state of economy also influences the size of mobilization addition. It was twice as smaller at the elections of 2001. Taking into account today’s economic realities it is going to be difficult to count on the maximum increase of the electoral rating in 2011, too.

It is interesting to note that answering the question: "Whom did you vote for in March, 2006?" asked in March, 2010 only 44% of respondents confirmed that they had voted for A. Lukashenko, and the share of those who mentioned that they had voted "against everyone" increased from 3.5% to 10.5%. The share of those who had not taken part in voting also grew more than twofold – from 8% to 17.5%. When comparing the answers one should bear in mind natural changes which have occurred in the electoral structure for the last four years. Nevertheless, short electoral memory of many Belarusians amazes. It is a direct consequence of their indifference towards politics therefore they were not able to keep in their memory events of the presidential elections scale.

The data of Table 3 let us estimate the nature of public support of the head of state. No fundamental changes happened during the crisis year. The lack of options connected with "the only political figure" remains in the lead now as before. There is nothing unusual in it. In the heads of the majority of Belarusians the authorities exist solely as a personified mono-subject. The version of the Belarusian Constitution currently in force proclaims that state power "is realized on the basis of dividing it into legislative, executive and judicial" (article 6). However, this article is virtually abrogated by article 84 in which presidential powers are being listed. And if something does not exist in the heads, it does not exist in reality. Therefore the results of the referendum of 1996 which had rewritten the previous Constitution were accepted without much resistance.

Attention should be paid to the fact that alongside with the lack of options the hope factor still remains high. It exceeds the real progress and achievements as well as personal professional qualities of the president more than two times. That is the reason why regular blunders at solving certain questions do not visibly tell on the support level of the non-alternative president, and his ratings remain "teflon".

Table 4. Dynamics of trust in the government, state and non-state mass media, %

Variant of answer	03'09	09'09	09'12	03'10
The government	39.8	42.5	39.7	41.4
State mass media	34.1	38.8	33.7	34.5
Non-state mass media	30.5	29.1	28.5	30.3

Answers to the question: "Please, name Belarusian politicians and public figures of the national or local level who express your interests to the greatest extent" also testify to the detachment of the ratings from the daily life. Even when the question is formulated this way, the first line is occupied by the person well-known to us, at that “the rating of interests’ expression” turns out to be more modest – 24.1%. Then follow local politicians (naturally, there are a lot of them) with the twofold lag – 12.2%. The third place is occupied by Prime Minister S. Sidorsky with the modest 6.7%. He is closely followed by the former opposition "single candidate" A. Milinkevich – 4.9%. Other Belarusian politicians did not manage to overcome the three percent lath of statistical discrepancy.

Ratings of trust in the government, as well as in the state and non-state mass media are presented in Table 4. During the last year they remained quite stable just as the president’s trust rating. One should pay attention to two points. First of all, although individual ratings of the members of the government amount practically to nothing, the level of trust in the government as a whole is rather high. It is another confirmation of the fact that the majority of Belarusians as power does not perceive the government (executive power) at all. Secondly, although the state mass media enjoy the overwhelming quantitative advantage over the non-state ones, the level of trust in them differs slightly. Moreover, if the word "non-state" is replaced in the questionnaire by the word "independent", such replacement will create an extra rating addition equaling 4-5%!

In fact, the presidential election campaign has already been launched in Belarus. A whole number of politicians on the part of the opposition have declared their intention to take part in the elections. The authorities, too, have started to untwist the mobilization flywheel. In the opinion of the Russian political scientist A. Suzdaltsev, A. Lukashenko’s electoral image has been constantly changing: a specialist in "plants launching" (1996), an initiator of integration (2001) and a bearer of "the crystal vase" (2006). The crisis requires a new image. Head of the Presidential Administration V. Makey have already made a claim for it: "When I am talking about a special role of the head of state, I am not afraid that someone may reproach me with propaganda of the personality cult. World history shows that it happened very often during dark years, during transition periods that people united around a strong personality. Basically all nations which found themselves facing major historic challenges went that way". One should have no doubts that "dark years" are setting in, however if years with such an attribute begin under A. Lukashenko, it will be very difficult for him to keep in the image of a "strong personality".

Back   Top