THE NUMBERS OF "THE SO-CALLED" HAVE GROWN

If one agrees with the official propaganda than Belarus is actively turning into the country of "the so-called". Naturally, the matter first of all concerns the opposition. As it is known, normal (constructive) opposition existed in the country for a short period of time and after the victory of its "leader" A. Lukashenko at the first presidential election it stopped existing. The civil society came to a standstill at the stage of "the so-called", and the infant middle class was transferred to that category in spring of 2008. Let us cite the last presidential message: "We have secured the absence of strong stratification into the rich and the poor in Belarus. Today we have approached the next level – it is necessary to develop the so-called middle class, so that there were no people of scanty means at all".

In industrially developed countries the middle class constitutes 60-70% of the population and owing to the fact it plays an important role in keeping up social stability. No serious research on the quantity of the middle class was conducted in Belarus; at that attention should be paid to the absence of a plain definition of "the middle class" conception in the expert community which creates additional difficulties for defining its quantity.

According to the data of the Russian sources, 33% of the Russians consider themselves the middle class; however, according to the estimate of T. Maleva, director of the Independent institute of social policy, the quantity of the middle class in Russia does not exceed 7%. An ideal representative of this social group is realized as a person, who possesses a bank account, immovable property, takes credits, has professional education not lower than secondary one, invests money into his health, and also has an active civil and public position.

Answers of the respondents received in the course of the IISEPS June opinion poll let us give concrete expression to our idea about the quantity of the Belarusian middle class. In particular, data of Tables 1-2 vividly demonstrate a quite modest result obtained during the process of proprietors forming for 14 years of constructing "the Belarusian economic model".

The question about the "Property" checks was asked in the June questionnaire on purpose. The point is that in April moratorium for the bellweather securities movement purchased by the minority shareholders in the process of preferential sale of shares was cancelled. In spite of the fact that almost half of the country's grown-up population got the "Property" checks in their time (Table 1), only 5.5% of them exchanged them for shares of enterprises, some more percent of respondents obtained shares by cut-rate subscription, by right of succession or purchased with them shares of one of the investment funds (Table 2).

Has anybody in Belarus managed to noticeably replenish his family budget thanks to the check privatization? One should not completely exclude such a probability; however it is necessary to remember that almost a half of Belarusian "check" joint-stock companies do not pay out dividends to their shareholders. The rest of them, according to the totals of the year, as a rule limit themselves to the sum amounting to 2-3 thousand rubles for a share holding obtained for the average statistical number of checks.

Only 2.6% of respondents acted as founders of corporate enterprises and another 1.5% purchased shares at the secondary market. Strictly speaking only these citizens can be considered real proprietors. However, owing to the paucity of the mentioned group it is impossible to analyze its socio-demographic characteristics.

Summing up we can say with certainty that "privatization the Belarusian way" did not contribute to the forming of the middle class in the country. At least we did not manage to get statistically reliable data by means of conducting a national opinion poll.

At the same time availability of property as well as the average amount of income do not yet let us place a person among the middle class representatives. In modern Belarus state officials are the most well-to-do people, but their high income does not become transformed into civil virtues. Struggle for the civil society and democracy is not simply struggle against poverty (any kind of power promises to increase the population income). In this case the source of income is more important than its amount; that is why the very fact of state-owned property predominance in Belarus blocks forming of the middle class.

Now let us refer to another important characteristic of the middle class – its civil activity. In the West the concept of "the middle class" is inseparably linked with the concept of "the civil society". Who forms whom in this case, who is whose product is impossible to say exactly, but it is clear that one concept does not exist without another. In the USA about 80% of the population takes part in the activity of non-government organizations. In Belarus the situation is different (Table 3).

Lately on the official level in Belarus they have been talking about the necessity of the innovation development more and more often. There is nothing surprising in the fact that the authorities again see the same official in the role of the principle subject of this development type. However, outside the scope of "the Belarusian economic model" namely the middle class acts as the main guide of innovation forms of socio-economic activity all over the world.

Successful innovation activity never came to purchase of new equipment and technologies anywhere, though state officials are to a certain extent capable of doing it. An innovation breakthrough in economy is possible only as a consequence of an innovation breakthrough in the social field. Yet state officials are powerless here. They have nothing to transmit to the mass groups of the population. Having got a corresponding task from the authorities they can at best occupy themselves with simulation of activity, and "the so-called" middle class is one of the products of this activity.

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