ANOTHER DIFFICULT YEAR

The analytical material in which we summed up the year of 2008 was called "A difficult year". The data of Table 1 show that we had every reason for that. The December opinion poll of 2008 fell on the active phase of the economic crisis, hence the share of negative assessments increased 9.6 percentage points, and the share of positive ones decreased 9 points virtually symmetrically. The December opinion poll of 2009, on the contrary, was conducted under the conditions of the social indicators growth giving signals about adaptation of the society towards the crisis. In view of that we should have expected a decrease in negative assessments of the running out year for Belarus, which however did not happen. Negative assessments, quite the contrary, became by the same 9.6 points stronger. To all appearance the general tiredness of conversations about the world crisis and its Belarusian "echo" told upon them. On the other hand, the share of the Belarusians adhering to the opposite opinion practically did not change. It turns out that there is a group of citizens in the country whose perception of life does not depend on external conditions, and we have no choice but to envy them (it may also be that a considerable part of the "lucky beggars" is formed by the citizens who owing to their declining years and intelligence level are not able to sufficiently assess the outside information).

The crisis at the end of 2008 touched mainly upon economically active citizens; that is why when comparing assessments made by the respondents who trust and do not trust the head of state the former much more seldom (33.2% vs. 55%) noted that 2008 had turned out to be more difficult than the previous one. In 2009 the disparity in negative assessments reduced: among those who trusted the president now there were 47% of them (+13.8), among those who did not trust – 59.8% (+4.8). Apparently the leveling is connected with the fact that with time information concerning the crisis began to reach less active citizens, too.

Dependence of any assessments on trust/distrust towards the head of state, as the IISEPS researches of many years show, simultaneously presupposes dependence of assessments on age. Hence there is nothing surprising in the fact that in the age group up to 30 years old 52.3% of respondents chose the answer "More difficult", and among those who are over 60 – only 42.8%. However, the usual linear dependence did not shape when moving from the younger to the "graduate" age group. Among those who are 40-50 years old the given index turned out to be the highest possible – 62.3%. An explanation of the nonlinear dependence lies on the surface: the economic crisis touched upon the people of the fore-pension age to the greatest extent as, on the one hand, they have not yet proceeded to the privileged in Belarus class of pensioners, and on the other hand, owing to their age they found themselves amongst the first candidates for dismissal.

Answers to the question of Table 1 are formed predominantly under the influence of mass media, whereas personal assessments to a much greater extent are conditioned by the every-day life. Judging by the data of Table 2, no particular changes occurred at the personal front during the last year, and under the conditions of the crisis it should be regarded as the main New Year present for the Belarusians. The mentioned conclusion coincides with the information of Belstat registering some growth, even if it is quite slight, of the population’s real earnings in 2009. Attention should be paid to the reduction in the share of respondents who found it difficult to answer; their answers divided approximately equally among those who were accompanied by luck and those for whom the last year proved to be unsuccessful.

However, the former just like the latter have been demonstrating the renowned Belarusian patience in the course of the whole 2009, thus creating new grounds for replenishing the national folklore piggy bank. Belarusian patience is an important factor of social stability maintenance in the country. Its basis is constituted by the strategy of passive (step-down) adaptation lowering demands and consumption, demoralization and inability to perform active and united actions in order to protect oneself against administrative arbitrariness.

No fundamental changes occurred in the "price-list" of 2009 problems (Table 3). Rise in prices is as usual beyond comparison, although in the absolute terms it lost 2.7 points with regard to 2008. Such reduction possesses a certain economic base: traditional for the last months of the year inflation splash was not observed this time. Apparently the crisis which had entailed the demand curtailment told upon it.

"Impoverishment of the population" turned out to be among the leaders according to the rate of growth – +4.8 percentage points. The growth is, speaking frankly, quite frugal if we compare it with the leap registered in 2009 (+18.3 points). Further the leaders lined up in the following order: "Decline of the national culture" – +3.9, "Unemployment" – +3.8 and "Setback in production" – +2.7 points. It is important to mention that the economic crisis did not make relevant the threat of losing independence in the public consciousness, moreover as compared to the "rich" 2006 the threat level regarding such a loss decreased two times.

The crisis topic proved to be top-level when ranging the main events of 2009, too (Table 4). As well as a year ago rise in prices ranked first – 59.7%. The "swine" flu unexpectedly occupied the second position (48%) having considerably outstripped devaluation of the Belarusian ruble. The reason for the mentioned discrepancy is probably connected with the fact that the two events turned out to be scattered in time: devaluation occurred in January, and the "swine" flu epidemic appeared in autumn, just as it was supposed to, i.e. closer to the end of the year. In full compliance with the logic of Schtirlitz, the last event was recorded in the memory of the Belarusians more brightly.

Dialogue establishing between the governing body of Belarus and western countries was noted only by 14% of respondents. There is certain logic here. The Belarusians got accustomed that if a nonordinary event takes place, then it is either "diarrhea", or "scrofula". Nobody is seriously expecting positive events, and even if they happen more often they are not noticed. There are virtually no events connected with the active actions of people themselves. The Belarusian European forum that was conducted on November, 14 should be regarded as an exception that unfortunately was not noticed by the majority of the Belarusians.

Such assessments of the most important events of the year by the public opinion testify first of all to the fact that there is no public opinion as an institution in Belarus. We have to agree with the sociologist L. Gudkov: "Today sociology of the public opinion only registers effectiveness of propaganda, control and indoctrination of mass consciousness. All these instances by themselves are absolutely futile, cynical and unauthoritative mentally or intellectually. They are not able either to define new guiding lines of the society development, or offer a new language of discussing significant problems… All these are consequences of the authorities’ consistent work with the society which has agreed to demagogy, which does not object to it (when the nature of demagogy is clearly understood)".

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