ALL TO THE ELECTIONS!

The power has definitively determined parliamentary elections. On June, 24 the head of the state signed decree № 344 according to which elections will pass on September, 28. This time the certain intrigue is not excluded. In his numerous public statements A. Lukashenko has not rejected the possibility of electing several deputies from the opposition into the House of Representatives. Besides, official propaganda, obviously counting on foreign listeners, makes regular statements in connection with openness and fairness of the forthcoming elections.

Opinions of Belarusian analysts, as always, divided. A. Lukashenko's personal guarantee, considering last experience, doesn’t seem to them too convincing. As to ordinary voters 45.9% of them trust in freedom and justice of the forthcoming elections. 34.8% of people hold the opposite point of view, and 19.3% are at a loss with the answer. In September, 2003 in connection with fairness of the presidential elections of 2001 the distribution of numbers turned out to be the following: 43.9% considered elections to be free and fair, 41.3% thought they were not free and fair, 14.8% were at a loss with the answer.

But in a month after the end of the third presidential elections (April, 2006) the distribution of answers in relation to freedom and fairness of elections was essentially another: 61.2% – 27.2% – 11.6%. The reason of "Anomaly-2006" was commented repeatedly, therefore we will pass to estimation of voters’ attendance of the forthcoming parliamentary elections in September (Table 1).

For the last three months, having passed since the time of the previous public opinion poll, the share of respondents who confirmed their readiness to take part in the elections has increased a little bit (+6.7 points). There is nothing unexpected, and the possibility for the further growth, judging by the column "I haven’t decided yet", is available. In June the respondents were asked the question in relation to their participation in voting at the parliamentary elections of 2004. 59.7% of people declared of their participation. It is evident, that for the last four years the young generation which could not take part in those elections has grown up. Therefore, the real number of voters was higher. Besides, 7.9% of respondents could not remember if they voted that year or not. Thus, the attendance of those interrogated in 2004 was more than 60%, and there is a chance, that the level given can be also reached this year.

As for political preferences of voters 39.6% of them are going to vote for A. Lukashenko's supporters. We remind, the electoral rating of the head of the state in June was 38.9%, and therefore such a level of support by his adherents seems logical. In June 17.7% were ready to vote for A. Lukashenko's political opponents (18.6% rank themselves as the opposition). Almost every third person (31.4%) declared he would vote for another candidate. However "other" candidates for Belarus do not exist. Each of them should decide for himself sooner or later, and if he does not do it himself he will be "helped" by the power. Therefore either A. Lukashenko's candidates-supporters, or candidates-opponents have a real chance to expand its electorate.

If we transform the question "Who are you going to vote for?" into the question "In your opinion, who will the majority of voters vote for?", then the answers of respondents will be distributed as follows: 54% were for A. Lukashenko's supporters, and 13.3% were for his opponents. Most likely, the distortion towards A. Lukashenko's supporters is connected with that experience, which respondents have received during the previous election campaigns.

And now we will look at Table 2. If we agree with the data given in it so we should admit for the last seven years in Belarus there has occurred an information revolution. The share of respondents believing that they do not experience problems with getting information about the political situation has doubled! And actually, there is nothing to be surprised with. In the beginning of 2001 only 1.9% of respondents used the Internet daily/some times a week, today the number of regular users has increased by 12 (22.8%). The list of technical tools allowing the Belarusians to receive information, including the sources independent of the state, is remarkably extensive. It includes today not only radio stations, but also television channels.

Have such revolutionary changes in the information sphere caused reformatting of electoral field? No, they have not. As we have mentioned before, the level of power support depends not on citizens’ degree of being informed, but on their personal resources. Let’s look at Table 3. For seven years the share of people trusting the Belarusian TV has increased by 7.6 points, but the share of those not trusting (+9.9 points) has simultaneously increased too. It resulted due to reduction in number of people who found difficulty in answering the question (this is another evidence of socio-cultural split in the Belarusian society).

The approximate equality marked in Table 3 of people trusting and not trusting the Belarusian TV can be easily discovered in the attitude of respondents to change of the Electoral code: 34% consider, that the present Electoral code limits free and fair elections, it should be changed, 39.6% adhere to the opposite point of view.

Considering the elections in Belarus free and fair, the majority simultaneously is not against of the opposition being part of the electoral commissions. In June, 2008 66.6% of people were for such participation, 32.8% were against. Overwhelming majority (71.4% vs. 19.3%) is presented by people who agree with the necessity of observers from the opposition being present at the polling stations. However, the absence of representatives from the opposition in the electoral commissions, nevertheless, did not undermine their legitimacy.

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