OPTIMISM OF THE POTENTIALLY UNEMPLOYED

One of the main conclusions made during the analysis of results of public opinion poll of March, 2008, was that the ability of the Belarusian society to adjust to negative changes is underestimated by analysts. In particular, the acceleration of the inflation which resulted in the shock in the end of last year has passed quickly enough into the category of habitual daily occurrence. According to the Statistics Ministry, during the period from January till May, 2008 consumer price indices in Belarus have made 106.6%, i.e. have exceeded the bottom level of annual "task". But in full conformity with the formula "optimism brings dividends" (see materials of March, 2008) the population has adapted to a new rate of inflation that was immediately seen in growth of positive expectations (Table 1).

Thus, "optimism dividends" create peculiar information filters through which only positive information passes. To illustrate the actions of similar filters let’s cite the recent statement of a well-known Russian TV reporter E. Kiselyov: "Here he (TV producer Todorovsky-junior) writes that people live in the situation when the reality is displaced, when this life which consists of hedonistic pleasures, actually is unwillingness, obstinate unwillingness to understand anything about their own life, as it is in reality. That is when people are said "listen, there is a bomb in your house", they say "no, show us, please, "the Eurovision" once again, how Dima Bilan has sung his victorious song".

But disposition to "hedonistic pleasures" today not only Russians show. To the question: "What vital strategy do you now adhere to?" 44.9% of Belarusians chose the answer variant in June: "To spend money while I have it, for daily needs". And judging by growth of retail goods turnover (119.6% during January-May period), people still have money. The data of the Statistics Ministry do not contradict respondents’ estimations concerning the change of their financial situation for the last three months (Table 2).

Pay attention to the last line of Table 2: economic conditions factor (FEC), defined as relation of value in the line "They have improved" to the line "They have worsened", continued its growth. Thus, the shock condition of December, 2007 is successfully being overcome.

Does the aforesaid mean that the system of information filters blocks receiving of disturbing information by 100%? Such is basically impossible. That is why the differences in moods fixed during public opinion polls, are of usual occurrence. Yes, people are apt to embellish the reality, but somewhere at subconscious level they understand, that they are engaged in self-deception, that is why they also easily run into the opposite extreme, which we observed in December, 2007. One of such "fearfulness" effect of public opinion is its ambivalence. Therefore journalists so often take sociologists at their answers contradicting each other and accuse the latter of non-professionalism or political engagement.

To illustrate the aforesaid let’s look at Table 3. It would seem that positive trends of two previous tables should have led to the growth of respondents’ number approving the course of country development. However, it did not occur. The reality knock at the door is impossible to muffle.

The reality distinctly comes out, when sociologists are interested not in opinions of respondents on this or that question, but find out the facts. From Table 4 it follows, that 38.5% of Belarusians are familiar with such a phenomenon as unemployment not in theory, but on the basis of their personal experience. We will remind that the rate of unemployment in the country, according to the Statistics Ministry has been fluctuating within 1% of the number of population capable of working for the last some years.

Questions on the attitude of respondents to possible changes in the socio-economical situation in Belarus in some years, changes in their personal economic conditions for the last three months, and also the course of development of the country are set by sociologists of IISEPS, perhaps, more often than any others. And it is not casual. In accordance with their importance the answers to these questions are similar to results of the general analysis of blood for physicians. Certainly, they do not give a full picture of state of health of a social organism, but without their studying the further detailed elaboration in the course of the analysis becomes senseless.

Today the answers to these "basic" questions say that at the forthcoming elections of deputies of the National Assembly in September the probability of surprises from the society side is minimized.

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