THE EXHAUSTED LIMIT

The search for critical numbers of supporters of changes is the dream of the opposition in any country. The power in the conditions of stability doesn't anywhere and ever change. In safe for the Belarusian policy of economy years of 2005-2006 the share of supporters maintaining status quo was maximum, but for the last two years it has decreased by 16 points. It is an important sign for the power, but how much is it important for the opposition? To answer such a seemingly simple question is not so easy.

In 1994 A. Lukashenko has won the first presidential elections, thanks to the support of changes adherents. The current situation then did not suit the basic part of the population. The majority voted for "a young politician" and has rejected "the strong economy executive" because the former just corresponded to its vision of changes, and the latter personified the existing chaos. Movement from the present situation is possible both into the future and into the past. It is necessary to remember it, observing the statistics of Table 1.

Let's do an operation on "preparation" of the generalized information. For this we will single out socio-demographic groups to which we get accustomed, and also groups of people trusting and distrusting A. Lukashenko (Table 2).

As you can see, the share of "supporters of changes" among those distrusting A. Lukashenko has made 80.8%. It is 2.6 times more than the share among those trusting him. But such a high percentage denotes that the limit of supporters of changes among people distrusting the head of the state is practically exhausted. The further growth of the number of "supporters of changes" is possible only at the expense of people trusting A. Lukashenko (an authoritarian part of the Belarusian society).

From long-term researches IISEPS gets to know, the Belarusian society is split in the proportion approximately 3 to 7 into democratic and authoritarian parts. The nature of split is not philosophical, but a resourceful one. The young, educated, living in big cities Belarusians, in a word, are all those people who are able to form their vital strategies in an active way, are in their majority for a democratic way of development of Belarus. Their opponents are inhabitants of villages and small towns. They are old people with poor education. Owing to the characteristics listed they require support from the state (see Table 2). Without it in modern conditions they simply will not survive. Depending on a current condition of economy they can trust or not trust A. Lukashenko and that leads to fluctuations of his rating. However, the society structure, hence, and the structure of demand for changes do not vary.

The words told above are also confirmed by the answer to the question: "Do you consider yourself opposing the present power?" It would seem, if a person does not trust A. Lukashenko and is not going to vote for him, he should be seen as an opponent of the present power (oppositionist). However, if the person in Belarus is not the supporter of the power, it does not mean, that he considers himself an oppositionist.

The oppositionist is a "fierce" characteristic, therefore the share of citizens identifying themselves as oppositionists, does not depend on the current condition of economics. In case of its deterioration, disappointed in the power people join in those who had a difficulty in answering the question, instead of joining the opposition (Table 3).

Thus, the growth of supporters of changes number, observed during the last public opinion poll should be regarded without fanaticism. The growth observed testifies that in the authoritarian part of the Belarusian society the discontent with the current economic situation rises, and many start to feel the necessity of returning to the recent past (in 2006). The conclusion given is proved by 10 points increase in comparison with April, 2006 of respondents’ share, who wish to revive the former USSR.

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