IISEPS — Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Politycal Studies

WHAT IS THE OPPOSITION NECESSARY FOR?

Answering the question: "Do you consider yourself in opposition to the present power?", 18.6% of respondents answered "yes", 68% answered negatively and 13.4% ducked out of an answer. Even if consider these "duckers" the hidden opposition (this is not quite correct), that means that the share of those supporting the current power is impressive.

Moreover, the respondents considering themselves the opposition in a broad sense are in quite complex relationships with the organized political opposition. The latter can rather vaguely imagine even their interests (Table 1).

Table 1. Interconnectedness of the opposition and trust towards various public and state institutions, %

Institutions	People considering themselves in opposition to the power		People not considering themselves in opposition to the power
Institutions	Trust	Distrust	Trust	Distrust
President	6.7	86.6	61.0	25.5
Independent research centers	53.7	25.8	49.9	27.3
Independent mass media	61.1	31.1	47.9	38.0
Human rights defense organizations	44.2	57.1	40.8	32.7
Associations of businessmen	49.8	25.1	32.0	43.2
Free and independent trade unions	33.6	46.6	37.4	37.9
Opposing political parties	39.9	35.0	13.7	66.1

Among those in opposition respondents the balance of trust and mistrust towards political parties in opposition is practically zero, that is, the share of trusting people is approximately the same as the share of distrusting ones. And among supporters of the power the number of people distrusting political opposition is more than the number of those trusting by 50 percentage points.

However, these relatively small numbers of the part of a society in opposition and low popularity of political opposition do not prevent many people from recognizing its vote, recognizing the necessity to consider its opinion at forming a state policy (Table 2).

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question: "Many people in our country and abroad consider that the Belarusian authorities should start negotiations not only with the European Union, but also with the opposition. Which of the judgments concerning these negotiations do you agree with?"

Variant of answer	%
Negotiations with the opposition are necessary, as only by means of negotiations it is possible to come to the consensus and regard various interests in our society	51.2
Such negotiations are not necessary because the opposition represents nobody and there is also no need for the authorities to talk to it	20.9
Such negotiations are not necessary, because there is no need for the opposition to carry on negotiations with the power, breaking laws and human rights, but it should force the power to maintain law	13.7
DA/NA	14.2

Simple calculations show, that the supporters of negotiations between the power and the opposition are not only those who consider themselves in the opposition. Moreover, two thirds of negotiation supporters are supporters of the power. On the other hand, every second person is an adherent of negotiations among supporters of the power. The opinion, that there is nothing to speak about with the opposition, as it represents nobody, among supporters of the power is shared by 27 %, and every tenth adheres to the radical opposition opinion, that the opposition has no need to carry on dialogue with the power. Among the people considering themselves the opposition, 40% consider, that it is not necessary to carry on negotiations with such power, and it is necessary to force it to maintain law, but the majority of the opposition (60 %) nevertheless is for negotiations.

Thus, the attitude of power supporters to the opposition is not so straightforward. And these people support the power, and as follows from Table 2, the overwhelming majority of them do not trust the opposition; however, every second person considers, that the power favored by them nevertheless should carry on dialogue with the unloved by them opposition. Why? Hardly are they inspired by Voltaire’s “Your opinions are disgusting for me, but I’m eager to die for your advancing them freely”. Here the national trait is more likely to reveal itself – the eagerness to avoid conflicts, even possible, the preference given to dialogue then to fierce confrontation. Here it should be mentioned that the majority of the opposition confronting the power is for negotiations, for the negotiations between much unloved power and not much loved opposition.

In this case the national peculiarity appears quite harmonious with the main principle of democracy, which is not the victory of this or that power, but compromise agreement of interests of all powers, existing in the society.

Namely such an idea, to all appearances, is revealed in the answers to the following question, dealing with the presentation of these various opinions in the legislative power (Table 3).

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question: "There are different opinions concerning the opposition in the Parliament. Which one do you agree with?"

Variant of answer
%

If there is no opposition in the Parliament, so there is no democracy in the country
48.8

If the majority of voters support the power, then there is no opposition in the Parliament, but that is the sign of democracy
32.3

DA/NA
18.9

Here the picture is still more vivid. It is evident, the first opinion is shared practically by the whole "opposition" – 86%. However, the votes among the power supporters, who constitute actually the majority, divided practically equally: 40% are for the first opinion, 43% are for the second one.

So, firstly, the Belarusian society by no means is not unanimous in its support of existing power. And, secondly, which is more important, far from the majority of power supporters share its philosophy of politics which is the struggle between the right (your own) and wrong opinion.