THE MOST IMPORTANT RESULTS OF THE NATIONWIDE PUBLIC OPINION POLL

The economic crisis, which according to the president "has only hardened us", became number one problem for the majority of the Belarusians. Thus, 81.3% of respondents consider that Belarusian economy finds itself in crisis, for 52.4% the year of 2009 turned out to be more difficult than 2008 (it "was easier" only for 7.6%), at that for 41.8% the crisis "seriously affected the family's every-day life" ("not affected at all" for only 10.8%). Thus, 28.7% have faced a delay in wages or pension payment for the last 12 months (including 19% of those who faced it "several times or monthly"), from 54% to 61% of respondents for the same period of time had to postpone purchasing or to cut down expenses for buying clothes, a TV-set or a computer, or a trip for vacations. When answering the question: "If one speaks about the life of your family, then what do you and members of your family have for an object?" almost 40% answered "to live not worse than the majority of families in my town, district", whereas only 26.5% aspire "to live better than the majority". That is why among the most acute problems which our country and its citizens are facing now almost 80% mentioned the rise in prices, 42.6% - impoverishment of the population, 39.5% - unemployment, 34.4% - setback in production, 25.5% - corruption and bribe taking (for comparison: only 4.3% mentioned the threat of Belarus losing independence). The crisis also revealed fundamental changes which had taken place in the structure of the Belarusian society for the last decade: in the opinion of almost 40% of respondents the poor and the low-income population suffered from the crisis in Belarus more than others, i.e. the very "ordinary people" who once used to be the hope and the support of the president (only 3.3% said that employees of the government agencies and officials suffered more than others). It is not surprising that much more of the Belarusians consider that the struggle against the economic crisis is more successfully conducted in other countries than in Belarus (42.1% vs. 30.4%), and the fact that Belarusian economy finds itself in crisis is believed to be to a considerable degree or in full measure the consequence of the country's leadership economic policy of the last years by over a half of the population (51.6%). Hence, regardless of the authorities' cheerful assurance, more than a half of the population (51.5%) expects crisis termination not earlier than in a year (and almost a fourth - after 2011).

The feeling of the shattered social justice which is becoming more and more acute ("the present authorities express interests of the officials and bureaucrats") which we wrote about not long ago is acquiring a still more vivid political aspect - an increasingly larger number of citizens feel "out of job". Thus, in the idea of almost a half of the population (47.9%) the conception of democracy, as in the majority countries of the world, is connected primarily with the just system of governing a state with the equal participation of all the citizens (only 17.2% agree that all this is "idle talk, demagogy"). However, answering the question: "What influence can you exert upon what is going on in your district, in your street? " 51.8% honestly said "none", 62.7% have no impact in their town (region, village), and 72.7% - in the country as a whole. Comparative analysis shows that the feeling of "unnecessary people" is steadily spreading over the whole society: if in May of 2005 54.5% of respondents believed that "people like myself cannot exert any influence on the decisions that are being taken by the authorities in our country", now there are already 71.9% of such people; if at that time 32.4% considered that "people like myself cannot openly express their political views", now there are 45.4% of such people; if at that time 33.1% were sure that "people like myself cannot at all influence the way our life is taking shape", now there are 44.1% of such people. No wonder that the majority of the polled (43.6%) do not believe that the recent changes in the electoral legislation will raise the level of elections democratic character in Belarus (only 29.8% agree to it). The increasing gap between the authorities and the people apparently explains people's critical attitudes concerning the questions far from the "high policy", too. Thus, almost three fourths of respondents (74%) consider that the authorities acted completely inefficiently or not efficiently enough at the time of the autumn swine flu epidemic (did not manage to organize effective medical treatment, supplying with drugs and protective means, concealed information about the real scale of the epidemic thereby causing panic among the population).

At the same time one should not overestimate the protest potential of these sentiments: if tomorrow presidential elections took place in Belarus, 42.5% of respondents would vote for A. Lukashenko (for comparison: for A. Milinkevich - 4.3%, for A. Kozulin - 2.4%), i.e. his electoral support went back to the pre-crisis level (in September of 2008 there were 42.5%, and in September of 2009 - 39.4%). When answering the question: "If protest actions against worsening of the economic position take place in your town (district), are you ready to take part in them?" 14.2% answered in the affirmative that is 3.7% less than in March of 2008. If the tactics of threats and bribery used by the authorities already fails in the sphere of economy, it still remains effective enough in the political sphere. In particular the dynamics of the Belarusians' attitude towards constructing the nuclear power station testify to it: if two or three years ago the number of those who denounced that disputable project of the authorities considerably exceeded the number of those who approved of it, today the numbers have almost matched (37.1% vs. 36.8%). In other words, political consequences of the economic crisis are "ripening"; however they have not come yet.

Geopolitical attitudes of many Belarusians, as it has been repeatedly registered in the IISEPS analytical materials, are also determined to a considerable extent not so much by their basic values but by their current interests. Thus, the evident excess in the number of supporters of the European choice over the supporters of the Russian one (42.7% vs. 38.3%) in the situation of the geopolitical dilemma "Russia or the European Union" which had been first registered in the September opinion poll, has returned today to its balance: 42.3% vs. 42.1%. The questions which are indicators of geopolitical values reveal the same fourth of the population that declared its European choice already a decade ago: 26.3% of respondents consider independence of the country to be a blessing, because "as an independent state we may become a member of the EU". Answering the question about the historical way of Belarus 23.6% define it as "a common way of the European civilization" (55% as "our own special way", 20.7% as "a return to the Soviet way"). And answering the question: "What do you personally expect from Belarus joining in the program of collaboration with the EU - Eastern partnership?" 21.2% answered "that Belarus becomes a member of the EU with time". That means that the European choice of the majority of the Belarusians is more effectively motivated by the concrete advantages of the European way of life which they get through their personal experience - affordable trips to the EU countries, consumption of European goods and developing of European markets by the Belarusian goods, contacts and collaboration with European colleagues, partners, etc. - rather than by colorful booklets with "stories about European values".

Answers of the Belarusians to the question about the hypothetical participation in the Ukrainian presidential elections which are going to take place in the middle of January, 2010 also present some interest. The share of the Belarusians who named their candidate in the Ukrainian elections on conditions that they participate in them is comparable with the share of the Ukrainians - almost 60% of respondents named their candidate in the elections in the neighboring country. At that the Belarusians reveal more "orange" preferences than the Ukrainians. If in Ukraine Y. Timoshenko lags a little behind V. Yanukovich, and V. Yushenko - behind both of them, then in Belarus they rank approximately the same (Y. Timoshenko - 21%, V. Yanukovich - 19.9%, V. Yushenko - 14.6%).

Special attention was paid in the poll to the problem of the Belarusians' national identity. Recently the voices of politicians and experts who with the enthusiasm of neophytes "are opening" for themselves a complicated, contradictory and incomplete character of this phenomenon have begun to be heard. The paradox consists in the fact that these people exactly gave a hostile reception to such assessments and conclusions which had been suggested by the IISEPS already in 1990s (for instance, in the famous article by Y. Drackohrust "Belarusian nationalism speaks Russian" published in "BDG" in 1998). Today it is an indisputable fact that two thirds of the Belarusians consider independence which the country obtained in 1991 a blessing (20.6% adhere to the opposite opinion). The opposition, as well as the authorities are trying "to make their policy" on it now. However, as a rule they either leave "off screen" or interpret reasoning solely from their own interests substantial characteristics of this "blessing". But these characteristics in particular reveal the originality of the Belarusians' national identity. Thus, answering the question: "What is more important - improvement of Belarus economic position or independence of the country?" almost two thirds (63.4%) chose improvement of the economic position (independence of the country - 28.2%). Answering the question: "Which state symbols (the national emblem, the flag) correspond more to the historical and cultural heritage of the Belarusian nation - the ones which existed from 1991 to 1995 (with the emblem "Pagonya" (pursuit)) or the present ones (reminding the symbols of the Belarusian Soviet Socialist Republic)?" 54.7% said "the present symbols" ("the symbols which existed before 1995" - 27.7%). Answering the question whether the Belarusians, Russians and Ukrainians were different peoples or three branches of the same people, three thirds said "three branches of one people" ("different peoples" - 30.6%). When answering the question: "Which language should be compulsory for use as an official language in public offices (the government, the army, law-courts, schools, etc.) - Belarusian, Russian or both - Belarusian and Russian?" 65% stated "the use of the Belarusian and Russian languages should be compulsory" (only Belarusian - 16%, only Russian - 14.9%). 60% of respondents mostly use the Russian language at home, 36.6% use the mixed language, 3.4% - Belarusian. Out of a dozen of modern and historical leaders the highest marks were given to Vladimir Putin (3.65 according to a five-point scale), Kastus Kalinovsky (3.62), Peter Masherov (3.57) and Catherine the Great (3.43). The last two positions were allotted to Joseph Stalin (2.63) and Zenon Posnyak (2.53). The renowned "theory" about the forced "substitution" of the "genuine Belarusians" by "contract soldiers from the East" during the period of after war reconstruction and urbanization did not prove to be true either: 82.3% of respondents have at least one grandparent who was borne in Belarus, and 55.6% - three or four.

The analysis also shows a quite stable character of deep-laid social structures and values of the Belarusian society, which apparently determines the long before noticed heaviness or even "resistibility" to radical changes and innovations. Thus, more attention is paid to the rapid growth in the numbers of the Internet users (today it is used by 41.4% of the Belarusians, including 24.7% who use it daily or several times a week, whereas in spring of 1999 the general number of users made up only 4.2%, i.e. there has been ten times growth for ten years!), but no one notices that the number of Orthodox believers constitutes 78.5%, Catholics - 13.1%, and Protestants - about 1% that virtually coincides with the religion structure of the population in 1994. Religious practice also remains the same: about a half of the whole population attends church several times a year (ones a week and more often - an international criterion of religious behavior assessment - temples are attended by less than 10%). The same can be said about the structure of the spare time spending: the majority prefers to do it in the family circle (53.7%) or performing household chores (53.1%). So far the obvious minority rests according to the European standards which include going in for sports (11.7%) or resting at some holiday resort (3.4%).

Back   Top