ECONOMIC PREFERENCES OF THE BELARUSIANS: WHAT HAS CHANGED DURING 10 YEARS?

Public opinion including economic views of the population as it is known considerably changes with time under the influence of different factors, such as development of productive forces, change of the population socio-demographic characteristics, purposeful arrangements on the part of the authorities, etc. Data of opinion polls can be quite successfully used for analysis of these changes, their depth and direction.

In particular, data of the IISEPS opinion polls published in different sources and first of all on the site of the institute (www.iiseps.org) were used for evaluating the changes in economic views of the Belarusians. In each poll sample aggregate made up about 1500 people who represented the grow-up population of Belarus according to gender, age, education, the place of residence and the type of settlement. The margin of error did not exceed 0.03.

In the majority of cases the depth of the trends reaches 10 years. In some cases it is smaller owing to the absence of the corresponding data. In order to get an idea about the importance of the ideological-political disunity in the Belarusian society, dynamics of the sample aggregate economic views as a whole is compared with preferences of supporters and opponents of the regime existing in the country.

For the sake of perception facilitation preferences of those who either found it difficult to answer of did not answer at all are not analyzed in the majority of cases.

As it follows from tables 1-3 the population appraisal of the change in its own well-being for the decade has a considerable positive direction. There are almost one and a half time more of those who consider that their financial position has improved (Table 40). At the same time there are more than three times fewer of those who marked worsening of their financial position. In other words, if ten years ago distribution of answers to this question was distinctly shifted to the negative side, than today as a whole it is slightly shifted to the positive side. Among supporters of the authorities those who marked improvement or invariability of their financial position prevail. Among opponents there are noticeably more of those who believe their financial position has become worse.

Dynamics of the immediate assessment by the respondents of their financial position looks virtually the same (Table 2). As it can be seen, the number of those who consider themselves poor has decreased 2.3 times. On the other hand, the number of those who consider themselves richer has increased 4.5 times. Simultaneously the number of those who consider their financial position average has grown almost twofold. Among opponents of the regime there are 1.5 times more of those who consider themselves poor to a variable degree in comparison with those who support the authorities. Among them there are also more of those who suppose that their financial position to a variable extent is above the average.

Data of Table 3 confirm the mentioned tendency, too. It follows from the table that the share of those who consider their per capita income lower than the minimal consumer budget (the MCB), has decreased more than two times. However, the number of those who are sure that their per capita income exceeds the MCB has increased almost six times.

As far as supporters and opponents of the regime are concerned, it turns out that the former in their opinion are noticeably poorer that the latter: if almost a half of the supporters has per capita income lower than the MCB, than there are fewer than a third of such people among the opponents. Comparing the data of Table 3 and Tables 1-2 it is possible to infer that the level of the financial position is interpreted in the groups of supporters and opponents in a different way. The former have lower incomes, but they feel richer. The latter, on the contrary, possessing higher incomes feel poor. Apparently the reason for it is that the former are on average older and less educated than the latter.

Sociological data are quite well confirmed by statistic ones (Tables 4-5). As it can be seen the level of a real average monthly salary and pension has increased 2-2.2 times during 10 years in the country as a whole.

Hence, the data given above let us ascertain that dynamics of the population economic views is based on the platform of the grown level and systematic increase of well-being.

The time of A. Lukashenko’s government has made a remarkable contribution to the system of economic values and preferences of the Belarusians. Ten years ago when A. Lukashenko energetically began to reconstruct the economic system of the country in compliance with his own ideas many people together with him hoped that active state interference in economy would help to quickly improve the socio-economic situation in the society. If we abstract our mind from the sources of this improvement as well as from the possible consequences of the applied methods of the economy development (what, in fact, the majority of the population does), than such hopes have been realized to a considerable extent. This exactly should be taken into consideration while examining relevant economic views of the Belarusians.

At the same time it has become apparent that virtually complete governmentalisation of economy showed in a great number of different disadvantages, which are being reflected in the public consciousness one way or another. In particular, today there are almost 1.5 times fewer of those who approve of considerable interference of the state in economy (Table 6). Simultaneously, there are more of those who would prefer the liberal variant of economy (+7.5 percentage points). As for the planned economy, the number of its adherents has decreased almost twofold during this time. At the same time, the number of those who avoided giving an answer to the question has grown 5.5 times, which may testify to a certain confusion of these part of respondents.

It is interesting to note that the greatest confusion was shown by supporters of the current regime. Though the majority of them (more than a third) still believe that considerable interference of officials in economy is a blessing; nevertheless every fifth of them already is not sure about it. Adherents of a more liberal variant of the market economy quite naturally prevail among the opponents of the regime (almost 60%).

Although slowly, but an understanding of the fact that private property is more effective than state one begins to predominate in the public consciousness (Table 7). The present day views of the Belarusians on this problem have become almost mirror-like compared with the ones of ten years before.

Those who are sure about effectiveness of state ownership prevail among supporters of the regime. On the contrary, adherents of private ownership predominate among its opponents.

In spite of the infringement policy towards small- and medium-scale private business conducted by the authorities and all possible support of the state sector, there are more and more people among the population who would prefer to work at private enterprises (Table 8). If eight years ago there were almost twofold fewer of such people than of those who wanted to work at the state sector, today the difference does not exceed 9 percentage points. Supporters of the current authorities are more inclined to work at state enterprises and opponents- at private ones.

Under the influence of the population demand the structure of the trade sphere is gradually changing, too (Tables 9-10). As it can be seen, demand for private trade services is noticeably increasing. State enterprises are insensibly losing their stands even in the foodstuffs sector. Although the trade structure is still far from being perfect, the tendency of development into the market direction is quite evident.

There are quite evident distinctions in the choice of trade enterprises by supporters and opponents of the regime. If supporters of the authorities prefer to buy foodstuff in state stores, opponents choose private stores and markets. As for manufactured goods, approximately a half of both supporters and opponents buy them at markets. However, among the second half the majority of supporters prefer state stores, and the majority of opponents-private ones.

Gradually, though slowly, the majority is becoming aware of the fact that protection of the home market with the help of customs measures is not the best means to support the national economy and to fight unemployment. Data of Table 11 show that in the country there are fewer and fewer of those who remain indifferent to the state "protection" of home producers. Although more than a third of the Belarusians still support the policy of state protectionism, the majority (56%) is against it today.

It is clear that state protectionism is more supported by the adherents of the authorities, and is not supported by their opponents.

Gradually the population is recovering from the "syndrome of red eyes" as it is called in China. As it follows from the data of Table 12 already more than a third of the respondents suppose that one should respect the rich. Ten years ago twofold fewer of the Belarusians thought the same. There are noticeably more of those who treat the rich with more respect among the opponents of the regime. As for the supporters, the shares of those among them who treat their richer fellow countrymen approvingly and negatively are approximately equal.

Data of Table 13 show that the population is gradually getting more small means of production at its disposal, which are used in order to earn one's living. Opponents of the regime are slightly better provided with such means than supporters.

It follows from Table 14 how the structure of preferred directions of resource use has begun to change and that such directions could well be investment ones. Although these changes have been quite insignificant during the decade, nevertheless there is more distinctness in the society concerning this question, and considerable decrease in the number of those who evaded answering it testifies to the fact. However, if the desire to spend these means on consumption prevails among the supporters of the regime, among the opponents there are more of those who would like to use them for starting a business of their own. At the same time almost a third among them would also prefer to use the means for consumption. It is evidence of an insufficient level of both, the supporters’ and the opponents’ of the authorities, well-being.

Data of Table 15 show a considerable dynamics towards a more liberal attitude even with respect to such a question as the use of the land and regarding which the public opinion used to be extremely conservative. Although the data reflecting preferences of supporters and opponents of the regime are not given due to bulkiness, dominating answers of respondents to this question are quite predictable: supporters of the regime are more conservative, especially as far as foreigners are concerned, and opponents are much more liberal.

Finally, Data of Table 16 show strengthening of the population liberal preferences concerning the question of obtaining social services such as education and health protection. As it can be seen the structure of respondents’ answers has become mirror-like for ten years. Preferences of supporters and opponents of the regime also look almost mirror-like. If among the former two thirds are for low-quality free social services, than among the latter three quarters are for more high-quality, but chargeable ones.

Data of Table 17, which show the dynamics of the population views when choosing alternatives of economic development, are quite interesting. Although the depth of the trends constitutes only 7.5 years, nevertheless it is clearly seen that the considerable majority of the grow-up Belarusians is quite ready for the corresponding changes in the direction of the country’s economic development. As it can be seen, almost 75% of the Belarusians stand up for speeding-up of economic reforms. More than 80% are adherents of development and state support of private enterprise. Almost 77% advocate reduction of military expenses. Almost 70% are for suspension of unprofitable enterprises financing. Almost the same number of the respondents advocates suspension of financial aid for agricultural enterprises. At that almost in all cases one can observe reinforcement of the preferences under consideration.

The mentioned tendencies are observed among supporters as well as among opponents of the regime. Preferences of the latter are only more contrastingly marked.

As for the social benefits concerning municipal sphere, population views remain quite conservative. What is more, even a negative tendency can be noticed in the public opinion. At that, opinions of supporters and opponents of the regime differ slightly. Data of Table 18 testify to it.

In our opinion, such a situation can be called forth by two conditions. First of all, active upbringing of the population by the authorities in the spirit of state paternalism has led to the following: any unpopular decision, especially if the matter concerns financial interests, is perceived in the society in a negative manner. Secondly, the matter of benefit cancellation is quite topical at the moment, as the authorities have proclaimed their decisions in respect of the question, and the opposition tries to acquire political dividends from it.

However, negative perception is not yet a protest uprising. One should not expect any serious political confrontation regarding the benefit problem under the conditions of strong intimidation of the population and virtually complete destruction of the independent trade union movement. In particular, the last attempt of the opposition to organize the so called "Social march" against benefit cancellation practically failed, in spite of the fact that 22.3% of the polled had approved of the idea.

Data of Table 19 may serve as additional evidence of the excessive governmentalisation of the economic relations in the country. The following tendency can be observed: the number of the grown-up Belarusians who approve of deception of the state in the form of tax evasion is increasing. However, if the overwhelming majority of the regime supporters disapproves of such behavior, than among the more liberally disposed opponents of the regime almost two out of every three approve of it.

Finally, independence of the country as such is acquiring more and more value for the population. As it follows from the data of Table 20 the number of those who consider independence of the country more important than improvement of its economic position has grown by almost 70% for only three years, and has reached one third of the grown-up population.

At that opinions of supporters and opponents of the regime on the given question differ slightly.

The main conclusions

Back   Top