VIEW OF USA AND RUSSIA FROM BELARUS

Over the past twelve years, public opinion about the West in Belarus has being built under the influence of open boarders on the one hand and under heavy pressure of state propaganda on the other hand. As the result, there are two interrelated visions which have got outlined within the society at present. One of them, let’s call it adaptive vision, is aimed at learning of Western ‘samples’ (hi-tech achievements, mass culture, etc.). The other generated various ideological defense mechanisms. In particular, this is the increasing demand of the ‘particular path’ which seems shouldn’t have been demanded with the population of a small state in the geographical heart of Europe.

Since the united Europe is a leading trade partner of Belarus, anti-West propaganda skillfully transforms into anti-USA propaganda. The public opinion unambiguously reveals this kind of specification on the part of the state-run mass media. At the same time, it is important to remember that the Belarusian society is currently split and around 25-30% of citizens have a strong immunity to official ideological manipulations. At the time of mobilization campaigns, this group of citizens stands up not ‘for’ but ‘against’ the ideas that the authorities try to impose.

Based on data in Table 1, we should like to say that Belarus is not just a small and proud but also a very influential state. What’s more, in the opinion of 43.5% of Belarusians, its influence on the world is ‘positive for the most part.’ Supporters of the opposite viewpoint are four-fold fewer. As regards the two allies in the struggle against international terrorism (Russia and the USA), the Belarusians literally placed them on the opposite sides.

If we look at the results of the same opinion poll conducted in April of 2006 in Russia by the Levada’s Center and in the USA – by The World Public Opinion, we will see that opinions of Russians on the role of USA in the modern world are ‘positive for the most part’ (61% stick to the opposite viewpoint). However, the level of self-criticism is much lower in Russia – 80% say that the opinion of Russia in the world is ‘positive for the most part’ while percentage of such ‘patriots’ in the USA is even lower than in Belarus (40%). These figures well demonstrate the ideological defense mechanism mentioned above. It is especially strong in Russia, the country where the citizens still cannot accept the fact that they lost the status of the Great Power.

The influence which the USA exerts on the world in general and on Belarus in particular is the same, as the Belarusians think (See Table 2), which is actually not surprising. It is hard for the general audience to differentiate foreign policy of a state situated thousands kilometers away and this is why taken as virtual on many points. Russia is quite a different thing in this regards. Its positive influence on Belarus is by far lower while difference on negative influence is almost twofold!

Data in Table 3 let us proceed from foreign to home policy assessment. Quite expectedly, the largest difference appears in the DA/NA column. Opinion about the home country is always more accurate. Also, Table 3 well demonstrates split within the Belarusian society: the Belarusians think more highly about paternalist abilities of their state as compared to Russia but at the same time this doesn’t stop them from sticking to the opposite viewpoint.

Answers to the questions about attitude to heads of state (See Table 4) traditionally give much information for analysis. It is always easier for the general public to assess a politician rather than a policy. Thus, attitude of Belarusians to G. Bush and A. Lukashenko is almost asymmetric which is not surprising while such a high rating of Russia’s president needs further comment. During the June opinion poll respondents were asked the following question: “If there is a position of the Russia-Belarus president introduced, for whom would you vote to take it?” The Belarusians all spoke out in favor of A. Lukashenko (45.1% vs. 24.7%).

What is the reason of the discrepancy? It lays in the very nature of the questions. In the first case, respondents assess politicians (See Table 4) and in the second case they are offered to make a choice which they do in favor of ‘their’ president. This is exactly like football fans behave. They may give high estimates to the play of an Italian or a French team but they will support ‘their’ team.

View of the world and their place in the world which Belarusians show is still irrational. There’s no way to expect anything else under the authoritarian regime which doesn’t want to break ties with the Soviet past. The Belarusians have obviously overestimated self-concept which they use to compensate for their confusion as to the dynamically developing West.

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