"RIGHT" ECONOMIC COURSE AND ITS RESULTS

Belarusian state-run media has been exalting socio-economic achievements of Belarus in 2004. Actually, statistics for the past year has revealed the growth of almost all economic indicators including incomes of various population groups. Thus, in dollar equivalent, average monthly wages has increased by almost 31% as compared with 2003 (from $123.8 to $162.3) and the retirement pension – by almost 34% (from $52.7 to $70.4). However, the prices have also grown up, in dollar equivalent included. This is why the real growth of average monthly wages and pension for the past year has made up only 15.4% and 17.6% respectively, which is much less than the official propaganda announces.

This result is fairly good, if it were not for the fact that in view of the referendum – which was very important for A. Lukashenko – conducted in Belarus in 2004 the authorities allocated additional funds from the budget for the socio-economic field, as they did many times before. The above said is well demonstrated in Tables 1 and 2. The jump of real wages has been registered in 2000 (Parliamentary election), 2001 (presidential election) and in 2004 (referendum on Constitution). This is the year 1997 only which falls out of this list since the growth of wages wasn’t accompanied by some “historical victories”. Regarding sharp growth of pensions, it was registered in 1995 (first referendum), 2000 (Parliamentary election) and 2004 (referendum on Constitution).

In 2005, growth of socio-economic indicators is nothing else but timely preparation to the next-year presidential election.

Table 3 shows similar trend, revealed by sociological methods (results of the nation opinion polls conducted by the IISEPS), which presents the dynamics of estimate by citizens of their per capita incomes. In particular, sharp income growth and decrease in low-income population groups during the appropriate electoral campaigns is apparent. Yet, it is well seen that, despite all “progress”, the part of the Belarusians with per-capita incomes below minimum consumer budget – the level of social survival – is still very large (almost three fourths of the population).

The data in Tables 1 and 2 lets us find out the general trend of growth in average monthly wages and pensions in the period under A. Lukashenko. In particular, during this time the real wages have increased 1.7-fold (1.917 : 1.110) and pensions – 2.3-fold (0.853 : 0.361). This result is an achievement of the current regime, even though they still haven’t reached, despite the official propaganda, the level of 1991 (when the average wages made $310 and the average pension - $146). The authorities managed to build up the model of command economy existing successfully by Russia’s resource and financial aid.

Unfortunately, this kind of economics cannot develop independently when there is no external support. This is why the results of the Belarusian economics depend more on the abilities of the Belarusian authorities to exchange political loyalty for a financial support of the rich Eastern neighbors rather than its personal efforts and capabilities. Clearly, the neighbors won’t give much. The level of incomes in Russia is presently 1.5-2-fold higher than in Belarus. Yet, this is quite enough for a “drink and a meal” which is the top point of an average man’s concept of happy life in Belarus!

Clearly, Belarusian “achievements” cannot be compared with achievements of the neighboring countries like Latvia, Lithuania and Poland which followed absolutely different economic development patterns – those based on active integration into the world economy and characterized by large-scale privatizing of state property, attraction of foreign investments and encouragement of small business activity.

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