IISEPS — Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Politycal Studies

SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY VS. ELECTORATE

According to the polling data, overwhelming majority of the electorate (four out of five) think that life in the country either has aggravated or hasn’t changed over A. Lukashenko’s latest cadence (See Table 1). This is why most of them cast their votes for A. Lukashenko. The official propaganda long ago persuaded people that improvement of their living is the desert of A. Lukashenko himself. A. Milinkevich gained only the votes of those who said that life in the country aggravated (7.4% vs. 3.3%). Of course, that was not enough for victory. Distribution of votes depending on how respondents assess their living standard looks in a similar way. Thus, A. Milinkevich again gained certain advantage only among those who think that the quality of life in Belarus is to a different extent bad (7.8% vs. 2.9%).

Table 1. Voting results depending on answers about socio-economic situation in the country, %

Variant of answer	All population	*Voted for:**
Variant of answer	All population	A. Kozulin (4.7)	A. Lukashenko (58.2)	A. Milinkevich (18.8)
How has your welfare and welfare of your family changed starting from 2001?
Changed to the better	38.9	1.0	31.3	2.3
Hasn’t changed	44.0	2.3	23.0	8.7
Changed to the worse	15.5	1.4	3.3	7.4
DA/NA	1.6	–	0.6	0.4
How would you in general assess the quality of you living?
Very/rather good	23.6	0.4	19.9	1.1
Average	59.0	3.0	34.8	9.7
Rather/very bad	16.4	1.0	2.9	7.8
DA/NA	1.0	0.3	0.6	0.2
Do you think in general the country is going in the right or wrong direction?
In the right direction	59.5	1.1	50.7	1.4
In the wrong direction	30.7	3.5	3.6	15.6
DA/NA	9.8	0.1	3.9	1.8
An All-Belarusian Assembly was held in Minsk in early March. A. Lukashenko stated at it that the political and economic course of the country is chosen right and it won’t change within the next five years. Do you agree with this statement?
Yes	54.2	0.5	47.8	0.7
No	36.4	3.9	5.9	16.8
DA/NA	9.4	0.3	4.5	1.3
In your opinion, can young people presently make a good career in Belarus?
Yes, young people can make a good career in Belarus	54.4	1.2	42.8	4.0
No, they better go to some other country for this	30.1	3.4	6.7	12.5
DA/NA	15.5	0.1	8.7	2.3
Would you like to move to some other country for permanent residence?
Wouldn’t like to move somewhere	61.6	1.2	45.2	6.8
Yes, I’d like to	30.8	3.1	9.2	10.5
DA/NA	7.6	0.4	3.8	1.5
The average per capita income (including wages, pensions, allowances and other earnings) you had in the past month in your family:
Below the Living Wage Budget ($74.5)	17.8	0.5	10.8	3.2
From Living Wage Budget to Minimum Consumer Budget ($116.3)	44.1	1.7	28.8	6.4
From one to two Minimum Consumer Budgets ($232.6)	31.1	2.0	15.2	7.8
Above two Minimum Consumer Budgets	6.7	0.5	3.1	1.4
NA	0.4	–	0.3	–

* Figures for those who voted for S. Gaidukevich, against all, didn’t come to voting and who gave no answer are not included into the table

As one can see from the polling, every three of five respondents think today that the country is going in the right direction. Only 30.7% of the polled stick to the opposite viewpoint. Quite naturally, they voted differently at the election: the first almost entirely cast their votes for A. Lukashenko and half of the second – for A. Milinkevich. The point of the next question - on the All-Belarusian Assembly and adherence to the same course proclaimed at it - is close to the previous one. This is why answers are nearly the same. Also, similar is distribution of answers to the next two questions which outline socio-economic situation in the country and which don’t need any comment.

Noteworthy is distribution of answers to the last question of the questionnaire. Thus, the size of per capita incomes almost didn’t influence attitude of the electorate to presidential candidates – A. Lukashenko is dominating in all groups. The gap is not very large in low-income groups (10.8% vs. 3.2% in the first group) yet A. Lukashenko is the leader among not only social outsiders: there appeared top-income groups of population for the period of his presidency which rather depend on him, support his course and get benefit from this kind of support.