LOGIC OF ANXIOUS EXPECTATIONS

To measure the social temperature in the course of national opinion polls specialists of the IISEPS by the existing longstanding tradition use two questions: "How has your personal financial position changed for the last three months?" and "How is the socio-economic situation in Belarus going to change within the next few years?" Both questions offer the same set of answer variants which allows us to compare the obtained results. Comparisons become especially vivid if we introduce indices of financial position (IFP) and of expectations (IE), which are defined as the difference of the outermost variants of answers ("It is going to improve" – "It is going to become worse").

If both indicators are negative, then the state of the society should be estimated as crisis. Here a certain analogy with the main economic performances is being observed, the negative value of which testifies to the economic crisis. It is clear that not only the absolute value of the indicators, but also their dynamics play an important role.

Let us refer to the data of Tables 1 and 2. During two months the IFP decreased from –5.4 to –21.4 percentage points, whereas the IE was reduced from –12 to –24! The exclamation mark has been put on purpose. Such a decrease of indices during such a short period of time can be observed not so often. The matter in particular concerns the dynamics, as absolute values of the indices have known worse times. Thus in November, 1994 the IFP constituted 62.6 percentage points, and the IE sank to –56.6 (the absolute records).

Attention should be paid to the fact that decrease of the IE turned out to be more considerable (36 vs. 15). Such a ratio is not accidental. The given indices are being formed under the influence of various informational sources. When answering the question: "How has your personal financial position changed for the last three months?" people, in the first place, rely on their everyday practice, however one should not write off the subjective factor completely. Answers to the question: "How is the socio-economic situation in Belarus going to change within the next few years?" are formed mainly under the influence of mass media.

For the purposes of illustration of the above mentioned statements let us consider change of the IFP and the IE at the beginning and at the end of 2007. At the beginning of the year the “oil and gas war” between Belarus and Russia took place. It is obvious that for the population it was a virtual war, while the rise in prices in November and December of 2007 touched each resident of the country directly. That is why the IFP in January, 2007 in comparison with November, 2006 changed insignificantly, however, the IE swooped down; and at the end of 2007 the IFP fell into a nosedive. Not least of all, its trajectory was influenced by the sunflower-seed oil price, which had almost doubled during the two months.

The previous experience lets us draw a conclusion that the economic crisis spreading in Belarus is perceived by the population at the beginning of December, 2008 first of all as a virtual one. Yes, the state of the society’s health has noticeably become worse; however, most likely it happened under the influence of mass media rather then due to the real financial position worsening of the population majority. This logic, in all probability, also explains the fact that among the Belarusians who trust A. Lukashenko 20.8% of respondents marked worsening of their financial position, and among those who do not trust him – 50.7%. Although in this case, too, not everything is so unambiguous. It should be borne in mind that the initial stage of the economic crisis touched predominantly working citizens; however the electorate basis of the head of state is constituted by pensioners.

Lowering of the social temperature, owing to the increase of anxious expectations in the first place, did not become transformed into readiness to protest actions, it would be more correct to say – into readiness to declare such actions (Table 3). Although in comparison with September the share of such declarants grew by 2.9 percentage points, it is nevertheless lower than at the height of the "oil and gas war".

As a comment to Table 3 let us allude to the opinion of V. Gelman, a political scientist: "In the course of political crises citizens can either (1) prefer to keep the existing regime and support the status quo ("loyalty"), or (2) passively adjust themselves to the changing situation ("withdrawal"), or (3) actively rise in opposition to the policy conducted by the ruling regime, or even to the regime itself ("protest"). A choice in favor of any of these behavior strategies even at the level of an individual, to say nothing about large groups of citizens, depends on many factors. Not only factors of "demand" for the status quo changing in this or that direction belong to them, but also factors of "supply" on the part of the ruling regime as well as on the part of its opponents. That is why it is not surprising that even considerable dissatisfaction of citizens with the regime by no means always brings with it mass protests".

It should also be added that beginning with the end of 2003 an income growth of the population took place in Belarus. That growth formed a specific social contract between the society and the authorities and it cannot be canceled for such a short period of time.

Data of Table 4 confirm that today we register only the “cream” of the public opinion reaction towards the economic crisis. The crisis has not affected the life strategies of the Belarusians in any way so far. All the differences stated in the first and the second columns are within the limits of statistical accuracy. In spite of the fact that the salary level in Russia considerably surpasses the Belarusian one and it is accounted for by inexhaustible natural resources (the poll was conducted before the beginning of reduction of world prices for the Russian rough export goods), the level of material claims by the Belarusians is noticeably higher. It is possible that in many respects it was formed by closeness to Europe. However, whatever the reasons for the overstated expectations might be, under the conditions of a prolonged economic crisis they might play the part of a detonator capable of changing the "loyalty" and "withdrawal" strategy into the "protest" one.

So far the spreading social crisis, the beginning of which we were given warning of by the indicator of the material well-being and by its "workmate" – indicator of expectations, did not tell on political preferences of the Belarusians in any way (Table 5). Decrease in the number of the authorities’ supporters by 11.3 percentage points should not mislead us. It is necessary to remember that in 2006 regular presidential elections occurred, which by the prevalent in Belarus tradition "coincide" with the growth of social payments that is why the number of the authorities' supporters invariably rises during the years earth-shattering for the country. As for the citizens who identify themselves as the opposition when answering the question of Table 5, their share is not subject to such considerable fluctuations. The initial stage of the economic crisis did not change it either.

It is extremely difficult to say today for how long dissatisfaction is going to keep exclusively inside the social field. A lot will be determined by the economic dynamics, which at a certain stage might make the Belarusians form their opinion about what is going on following the day-to-day principles of life rather than a virtual picture. Such a change of the source of the public opinion forming will depreciate the media advantages of the authorities, which in its turn will considerably reduce their ability to influence what is taking place.

Back   Top