PRAGMATISM OF A STATESMAN

Determining the topic of month, this is undoubtedly preparations to conversion of fraternal Russia-Belarus relations onto the market and pragmatic basis. Economic price of this issue is $6-7 billion and political – further existence of the authoritarian regime in Belarus. In a word, it has something to talk and argue about. The Belarusian elite don’t believe in diplomatic talents of the president. Both private and public sector employees agree about this. (See Table 1). In regards to other variants of answer, the difference is more significant here. The private sector thinks global while their colleagues are more pragmatic. They are used to looking at the world through the prism of personal interest. As they say, it depends on what they studied for.

The past year will most likely put an end to the many year competition around the joint ownership of the Belarusian gas pipeline. The strategy of promises with their further denunciation has already played out. The elite are in general ready to the loss of control over this important part of national patrimony. As it was expected, public sector employees are more patriotic while the common people surprised really much. The reason is that the opinion of A. Lukashenko’s supporters (and they are the majority in Belarus) always follows the statements of the president. A. Lukashenko never spoke against sale of Beltransgaz in public, but he turned the talk onto the fair price. As regards the issues of justice, everyone knows he has no equal in the world. Nevertheless, 82% of Belarusians who chose the variant of answer “Under no circumstances they should sell Beltransgaz” is a sociological fact that cannot be denied. (See Table 2).

This fact developed based on the official parasitic attitude with which the authorities themselves call to fight (“The time of parasitic attitude is over!”). It is OK to receive Russian gas for $47 per 1,000 m³. Of course, it is because we are two branches of one nation living within the framework of the Union State! Yet, we won’t sell a part of Beltransgaz! No way! It’s ours! The years of independence weren’t lost. The national conscience learnt to distinguish between its own benefit and some general benefit.

The question about conditions for sale of Belatransgaz was also asked to the elite in May, shortly after the first official statements by Gazprom on the forthcoming rise in gas price for Belarus. Those statements weren’t then taken that seriously. Despite this, answers given by public sector employees and by private sector employees were close. There occurred considerable changes with the opposite signs within these groups. Thus, in May the ratio on the first variant of answer was 20 : 50 (today 43 : 30) and on the second - 77 : 47 (57 : 60). Representatives of the state elite have obviously lost the ability to give rational assessment of the situation under the pressure of the economically inevitable. As it should be, archaic layers of conscience operating with simple notions like “our-alien” revealed themselves in the critical situation. For private sector employees, sale of Beltransgaz’ controlling stock means A. Lukashenko’s official recognition of his defeat. This explains the opposite trend.

The population in general as well as the elite well realize detrimental consequences of gas price increase. (See Table 3). The elite don’t believe in catastrophic future. Many-years experience of finding personal interest in the state field wasn’t lost. (See Table 1). This first of all applies to the public sector employees. On the other hand, they don't pin hopes on president's negotiator abilities. Also, it is unreasonable to deny slight aggravation, this is why there are 71% for the second variant of answer. Over a third of population still believes that everything will come to normal. In general, it is possible to conclude that neither the society nor the elite are ready to a stunning blow. It is easy to understand why. Just look through the state-run newspapers. Here is one very typical example. In December Belarusian Cabinet approved the budget for 2007. The latter doesn’t take Russia-Belarus relations into consideration. This time A. Lukashenko’s notorious call to “proceed depending on situation” was neglected.

When Belarusian authorities face real problems they rush to seek for non-standard decisions instead of having a rational discussion with the society. Just remember the row around the Azerbaijan and Venezuelan oil. Such innovations target the PR only (to distract the public opinion). Construction of a nuclear plant is one of the trump cards in the propaganda deck of the authorities. The game into a nuclear plant construction in the society which is still suffering the Chernobyl syndrome won’t bring stable dividends. (See Table 4).

In general, the results of June nation opinion poll agree with the opinion of elite, yet there’s a considerable gap between the sectors. This is a typical situation of the average temperature in the hospital. How could this happen? This is a hard question. Perhaps, public sector employees are more pragmatic in their assessment of consequences of this yet another construction of age for the country’s economics in view of their position in the government hierarchy. On the threshold of economic problems in 2007, additional load on the budget may appear fatal. This is the reason for a clear-cut “Don’t support.”

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