OPINION TRIANGLES

A triangle with the apexes which are the opinion of population and viewpoints of public and private sector elites cannot have rigid characteristics. In this regards, it is more correct to speak about numerous personal triangles built specially for a particular issue. Opinion of the Belarusian elite is not always elitist and this is why construction of the ‘comprehension language’ for the remaining part of the Belarusian society often appears beyond its capacity. Not everything should be reduced to the lack of intellectual resources, yet this may be the case as well. Under the conditions of a tough authoritarian regime, the elite (first of all representatives of the public sector) have to be a servant rather than to serve. This averts any creative urges.

The March presidential election is over. It is now less than a month before the election into the Local Councils. However, it is wrong to say that an election plays any crucial role in the life of the Belarusian society. Of course, the presidential election is an exception in a certain sense, yet this exception works only within a short timeframe of an election campaign.

Let’s have a look in Table 1. This is the triangle of opinions. The question asked to the elite is a kind of test on their understanding of the society which they have to lead by their status. The last variant of answer (DA/NA) is this time again the most important from the viewpoint of analysis: 28% of respondents found it difficult to answer! However, this is the average value. There are even more of those who found it difficult to answer (37%!) among public sector employees. It should be taken into account that those who make the core of private sector employees are leaders of opposition parties, editors of non-state social and political newspapers, businessmen and scientists, or in other words the people whose professional field includes the knowledge (analysis) of public opinion.

At the same time, the very public opinion (the first column) is not surprising. It has been unexpectedly stable in attitude to authorities over the entire year 2006.

The next table lets us speak about one more triangle. (See Table 2). In the opinion of united elite, the answer going definitely the first is "It doesn’t have the potential to do anything". Representatives of the public sector made the greatest contribution into this result, which is quite expected. Let’s see the first three leaders in each of the groups polled. They have no full match and only two double matches (“Change its methods of struggle” and “Work better”.)

The public opinion comes to the activity of opposition with what is most topical for it. It demands that the opposition is free and fair, works better and help increase people’s living standard. Two thirds of public sector employees, as it has been noted above, presently don’t see any sense in the opposition activity proper. Their positive contribution into the development of opposition movement comes to the most general recommendations like unite and work better. Private sector employees, many of whom identify themselves as the opposition, hope first of all on a simple program. This opinion is quite surprising since the development of a simple program is the most available action for the opposition under the authoritarian regime. Nowadays nothing and no one in Belarus hinders the development of political programs. This doesn’t require permission from the authorities or substantial sponsorship.

Awareness about forthcoming economic problems hasn’t generated in the Belarusian society any significant hopes for transformation of the political regime: 61% of public sector employees still see A. Lukashenko the head of state even in five years. (See Table 3). All the rest simply evaded the answer by putting a tick for DA/NA alternative. The opinion of private sector employees is more diverse on this really critical issue. They surely cannot agree with irremovability of the first president, yet they don’t count on their own (opposition) forces. They think help should come from outside and consider the Kremlin as the major help.

Refusal to find support in its own forces is partially proved in the list of opposition leaders. Z. Poznyak is put on the first line in answers to the question “Would you please name a Belarusian politician or a public figure who expresses the best your interests?” His name was chosen by 20% of private sector employees and 10% of public sector employees (together - 15%). The second place was given to A. Milinkevich. Another presidential candidate A. Kozulin received 5% and took only fifth line in the rating of those expressing the interests of Belarusian elite.

The above data of the opinion poll among the elite draws to the conclusion that the Belarusian elite hasn’t yet presently overcome the crisis they faced after the failure at the presidential election in March. Galvanization of Z. Poznyak’s name speaks really much. This is a kind of protest against inefficiency of politicians.

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