IISEPS — Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Politycal Studies

WHAT DO VOTERS WANT?

What would you like to ask the current president A. Lukashenko and his major rival A. Milinkevich, a sole candidate for democratic forces, if you happen to meet them during the election campaign? We asked respondents during the polling. Open questions like this and especially questions demanding original thoughts from respondents can hardly be processed statistically. However, such hard questions cannot be avoided if the polling is not aimed at a regular survey of public opinion but is searching the key idea and the issue which is of great concern for respondents and which can later become a hit of campaign. This issue is usually put up after presidential candidates get registered and the election campaign officially begins.

Now, what do voters want to ask? In Tables 1 and 2, only those questions are quoted which exceed statistic error. As regards the head of state, respondents obviously don’t feel as the electing side but rather as the subject side asking to improve their welfare. Somewhere in the middle, there’s a question asking “For how long is he going to rule?” on which we will comment later.

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question "What would you ask the current president A. Lukashenko if you happen to meet him?" (open question, more than one answer is possible)

Variant of answer	%
Would ask him to raise pensions	6.2
When will the living standard increase?	6.1
How long is he going to stay in power?	5.7
When will people live well?	5.6
Why do prices rise along with raise in wages?	3.8

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question "What would you ask A. Milinkevich if you happen to meet him?" (open question, more than one answer is possible)

Variant of answer	%
About his program	13.1
About peculiarities of his election campaign	7.0
What is the way out of the deadlock for Belarus? What should be done for this?	3.8
Where do you climb? Why do you need the power so much? You want to grab something for yourself?	2.9

The sole democratic candidate was luckier with the questions. Thus, around 20% of respondents would like to get introduced to A. Milinkevich’s program and details of his election campaign. Clearly, they don’t mean getting a full-color fancy leaflet or a sophisticated study book of his standpoints and reforming programs. They rather want to identify A. Milinkevich as well as get explanation of how this candidate plans to win the election. As the Table 2 shows, the most frequent questions which respondents would like to ask to the opposition leader are neutral. They reveal interest in this new figure and this means that it is A. Milinkevich who is now responsible for building up his image in the eyes of Belarusians.

Going through the list of questions to presidential candidates, it is hard to figure out any common attitude which political strategists could use to specify the slogans of their clients and political scientists – to assess situation and predict its development. Thus, in 2001, sole democratic presidential candidate Vladimir Goncharik made an attempt to use the issue of disappeared opposition figures as his campaign’s hit. Appropriate facts and documents were leaked into the press. However, voters didn’t get interested in the future of missing VIP’s because a common citizen couldn’t apply to their lives the fate of former Interior Minister Y. Zakharenko and Vice-Premier V. Gonchar who went over to the opposition camp. Anyway, this wasn’t a mass event and the campaign finally lost its hit.