"SAVIOR" OF RUSSIAN CIVILIZATION WILL COME FROM THE WEST?..

Results of the nation public opinion poll show that supporters of Russia-Belarus integration into a single state are getting fewer and fewer in Belarus. Today, only one of eight respondents wants this unlike three years ago when every fifth citizen supported this idea. (See Table 1). For that same period, the number of supporters of closer relations within a special union almost hasn’t changed, although the official propaganda has been actively promoting this very integration variant (51.7% previously, 52.3% now, which is a fluctuation within representative error). Then, the number of those who would rather have these two countries maintain friendly relations (like with other CIS countries) almost hasn’t changed either. In other words, any particular variant of relations between the two countries doesn’t gain new supporters while decrease of interest to USSR-type of integration has brought up to a doubled number of vacillating respondents and respondents who don’t give an answer.

The data of Table 1 takes to the conclusion that the population has disavowed A. Lukashenko’s recent statement on the integration variant preferable for Belarus. He literally said that while Russian leaders want to integrate based on EU principles, Belarusian – based on USSR principles and “rich Soviet experience!”

This conclusion has been supported with data in Table 2 which presents the dynamics of answers to the direct question on the attitude to restoration of the USSR. Thus, over the past 12 years, the number of USSR revival supporters has gone down by one third and the number of this idea’s opponents has on the contrary increased almost 2.2-fold. It comes out then that the Belarusian head of state poses his personal interests for national disregarding the public opinion.

What caused loss of interest to closer integration of the two countries among population? It might seem, administration of both countries constantly holds talks on integration, integration is actively propagated for in the mass media and special commissions have been preparing new drafts of the Constitution. All these efforts take to nothing, though. We think the reason is an undefined integration policy of the official Minsk and double-dealing of the state-run mass media.

It is obvious that integration discourse of the Belarusian authorities is actually aimed at concealing A. Lukashenko’s true aspirations in regards of its Eastern neighbor. These aspirations are revealed only in a special analysis of his statements and actions which is not the purpose of this research.

As far as the mass media regards, on the one hand they have been actively praising all the ‘advantages’ of this integration. Sovetskaya Byelorussia is especially ardent. Its manifold adepts of integration weekly sing hosanna to the Union State so as to work off the wages allocated from ‘Union State’s budget.’ On the other hand, these same mass media, especially electronic, daily persuade people that something dramatic, anti-public and apocalyptic daily takes place in Russia and they will not survive without A. Lukashenko. On the contrary, Belarus is allegedly a true paradise amidst this outrageous ocean of disorders. The result of this zombie-making procedure is obvious! Data in Tables 3 and 4 well demonstrates it.

Thus, for the past three years attitude of people to their eastern neighbor has changed fundamentally. Nowadays, two thirds of Belarusians believe that living in Belarus is by far better than in Russia which is twofold more than three years ago. Only every seventh citizen has an opposite viewpoint today while at the end of 2002 this was the opinion of every second respondent.

This same is true as to the progress in democratization and civic society development: in spring of 2003 56.3% of respondents were convinced that only Russia is ahead of Belarus and today they are only 29.5% which is twofold less. Likewise the number of those who puts Belarus on the first place has increased twofold (from 17.8% to 35.1%).

In the Belarusian state-run mass media, it is very hard to find unbiased information about real situation both in Russia and in Belarus. Basically, people don’t know anything about real living in Russia since Belarusian media heads are picking out only negative materials from what Russian TV broadcasts for Belarus and all the decisions of Russian authorities in favor of the population are immediately interpreted by a horde of in-company ideologists in the light favorable for the Belarusian authorities. As regards Belarus, state-run media present its problems and failures as minor omissions or intrigues of enemies and impertinent bureaucrats while tiny improvements are boosted to the level of global achievements and are ascribed to A. Lukashenko personally.

In which direction can integration preferences of the people go in the near future? As we’ve already noted, one of the indicators showing the trends of changes in the mass thinking is the opinion of the elite. We should like to consider the data of Table 5 from this viewpoint. It shows the dynamics of answers given by opinion leaders and experts in comparison with the data received in the nation public opinion poll.

Thus, representatives of the elite don’t have any doubts under alternative choice: accession to the EU is more preferable than merging with Russia. An overwhelming majority (79%) have once again spoke out for the European path and only 18% – for the Russian. At the same time, support of the Western integration path has gone down by 11 points less than for a year while support of integration in the Eastern direction has grown by 8 points over the same period.

Changing of standpoints is even brighter in the public sector. Support of the Western path has gone down by 23 points and of the Eastern one increased almost twofold. In the private sector, the situation hasn’t changed.

It is possible to conclude that, in the opinion of the elite, the role of integration in the Russian direction has been growing again in the Belarusian mass thinking. The data of nation public opinion polls only prove this tendency. As it goes from Table 6 which asked an alternative question, for the past two years support of accession to the EU has dropped down by one third (from 36.1% to 24.8%) and support of integration into Russia has increased by 8.4%. Mostly likely, this is as well what the data in Table 6 shows. Thus, the number of those who think that in ten years Belarus will remain in the field of Russia’s strategic interests has increased by 8.8% over the past six months.

At the same time, as Table 7 shows, the opinion that Belarus will remain an independent country and won’t merge with Russia over this period is getting progressively stronger in the Belarusian mass thinking.

All said above reveals certain controversy: the lower is the interest to closer integration with Russia, or to be exact the willingness to merge with it, the higher is the interest to integration without losing Belarusian independence. Perhaps, this accounts for decreasing number of respondents willing to vote for Union State Constitution at a hypothetical referendum (See Table 8). In fact, this decrease appears even more significant which is revealed in distribution of answers to a similar question in earlier opinion polls. However, the wording of that question was different and therefore this data is considered non-comparable.

As far as the elite regards, the Table 8 shows that less than a quarter of respondents (22%) are ready to vote for this bill, most of them public sector employees. Hence, decrease of people’s support to the draft constitution may continue. It is entirely possible that the citizens are afraid to lose country’s independence if this document passes.

Indeed, there are such concerns among Belarusians which is seen from Tables 9 and 10. Thus, three thirds of respondents among the elite, irrespective the sectors they represent, are certain that Russian government as well as Russian citizens want to take up independence from Belarus. This is as well the prevailing standpoint among common citizens.

All said above draws to the following conclusions. First, observed growth of interest to Russia-Belarus integration, yet without loss of independence for Belarus, fully coincides with A. Lukashenko’s many likewise statements and well fits into his policy towards this Eastern neighbor. Second, strengthened propaganda of ‘achievements’ of the Belarusian regime and persistently negative assessment of socio-economic situation in Russia given in the Belarusian mass media as well as in the Russian province’s media space proves that the Belarusian authorities has been actively preparing grounds to try again his project which can be conventionally called "Attack the Kremlin". This time it will not be presented as incorporation of Belarus into Russia which is the dream of most Russians and the concern of most Belarusians. This time it will be introduced as joining of a ‘robbed by oligarchs’ and ‘dying from wrong and anti-public ruling’ Russia to a ‘strong and prosperous’ Belarus. The Russian civilization will be "saved" – by the "Messiah" called Alexander Lukashenko.

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