ELITE RECOGNIZED A SOLE CANDIDATE FOR DEMOCRATIC FORCES A. MILINKEVICH

Changing the status quo is presently more important for Belarus than maintaining it. This is the prevailing stance of public opinion leaders and experts from both public and private sectors: 78% of respondents. In the private sector, this is the opinion of an overwhelming majority (93%). As regards the nation public opinion poll, it shows a more reserved support to adherents of changes (55.7%). At such a background, even the public sector elite appear more revolutionary comparing to common citizens: 63% of the polled leaders and experts from public sector spoke out for changes. From the viewpoint of scholars who define the Belarusian culture as consensual, i.e. conservation of traditional values and distrust to innovations breaking traditional way of living, the elite happen to be alien for common people. Yet, opinion leaders often walk a step ahead of the entire society.

The date of presidential election, which is March 19, makes very topical the analysis given by the elite to the coming campaign. According to the polling, 93% of private sector employees are certain that the coming presidential election will be neither free nor fair. In the public sector, 60% of respondents stand to the same viewpoint. As regards the electorate, only 28.9% of them give the same negative estimate of the forthcoming election while about a half (49.5%) thinks that the presidential election will be free and fair.

It can be assumed that, among both leaders and common citizens, they see differently the ways of changing situation in the country. Thus, some stand up for changing the course of the current power and the other want to replace personalities symbolizing current power and those governing the country. Answers of respondents to the following question reveal their aspirations: “If V. Goncharik or S. Gaidukevich and not A. Lukashenko was elected the president in 2001, what do you think would be the current situation in Belarus?” (See Table 1).

Thus, 34% of experts said that the situation would be better than today. Among them, this is the opinion of over a half of respondents from the private sector (55%) and only 13% – from the public sector. The opinion prevailing within governmental elite is that the situation would be then worse than today (47%). The largest group of common voters (39.7%) takes the same standpoint.

At first sight, it looks like adherents of changes didn’t see a decent choice in 2001 and the past four years only made them certain of this. A more thorough analysis of answers given by experts from two different sectors draws to other conclusions. Thus, leaders from the public sector couldn’t find a suitable promoter of changes, so 80% of them decided that election of a new alternative candidate would aggravate the situation in the country or wouldn’t change it. In the private sector, 62% of respondents came to the conclusion that this would improve the situation or wouldn’t change it, which indicates a considerable advance trust to an alternative candidate. Actually, the coloring of this trust is not very optimistic: private sector elite are convinced that it cannot be worse under the other governor than it is now. V. Goncharik and S. Gaidukevich are two very different figures and therefore their interpretation as of a general hypothetical alternative caused disagreement of a part of respondents. This expounds for a high percentage of those respondents within the elite who refused to answer the question.

Comparing answers of leaders and common citizens, we should like to underline that common people take the position close to public sector leaders, i.e. aggravate or will not change. However, percentage of those who found it difficult to answer is very high among common citizens as well, and the stance “will improve or will not chaneg” is approximately equal to the answers “will be worse than today.” All this draws to the conclusion that there is no common position on this issue within the society today. There is still not enough data for a grounded conclusion on the mechanisms of changing the situation preferred by the elite, but we assume that the public sector rather hopes that the president will change his course and not that the president will be replaced (73% will vote again for A. Lukahsenko) while the private sector apparently sees the prospects for changes only if the current president resigns (42% will vote for a candidate for democratic opposition). The standpoint of the elite from the public sector opens wide possibilities for A. Lukashenko. In case the head of state undertakes to change or adjust his course, there will be no need to change his team. The current one, except for several persons, is ready to carry out a new course. For public sector leaders looking for changes, it is important to preserve their positions in the system of power which to a greater extent depends on their loyalty to the current president. For the private sector, remaining within the system is not regarded as an issue on the agenda; this is why its representatives easily tie up changes in the country with removal of the president.

Do the elite expect dismissal of president in 2006? Data Table 2 can help us see this.

Thus, prevailing among polled leaders and experts is the standpoint that voters will not support A. Milinkevich at the coming presidential election (41%). At the same time, a significant number of respondents (34%) found it difficult to answer this question. Similar thing can be found in comparison of the results of the nation public opinion poll and opinion poll among leaders: 46.8% of respondents said they wouldn’t support A. Milinkevich at the election, 36.9% will see from the situation and 10.2% would vote for a single candidate for democratic forces. Thus, the opposition leader has the potential of support. He needs to build the appropriate conditions when voter’s evasive answer will transform into decision to vote for his candidature at the election. It should be noted that the elite haven’t yet fully determined its standpoint which is seen from a high for the elite percentage of those who found it difficult to answer. Meanwhile, there are obvious distinctions between the two sectors. Answer “no” is firmly dominating (60%) in the public sector while the most recurrent answer in the private sector is “yes” (42%). Obviously, this is another witness of communication failure between representatives of the two sectors.

What stops them from taking the standpoints? The main reason for common citizens is their unawareness about Congress of Democratic Forces held in Minsk on October 1-2 and election of A. Milinkevich as a sole candidate for the presidential election of 2006 (66.6% of people didn’t hear anything about the Congress). However, this isn’t the reason for the elite (97% of the polled experts did know about the Congress results).

Apparently, leaders and experts have enough information about personality and political standpoints of the new opposition leader but they don’t have reliable information about A. Milinkevich’s support by voters. Election of a sole candidate was an inner opposition event, this is why for the elite the results of the Congress don’t mean people’s support of this figure. What’s more, for the past several months A. Milinkevich didn’t have an opportunity to demonstrate mass public support of his candidature in a street action or in some other way. Certain opinion about support to the new opposition leader can be made after submission of collected signatures for his nomination into presidential candidate to the Central Election Commission on January 27. The number of collected and valid signatures will certainly influence the opinion of the elite.

Meanwhile, it can be noted that experts have recognized A. Milinkevich as a sole candidate for democratic forces. Asked an open question “If the presidential election takes place tomorrow in Belarus, for whom will the majority of people vote?”, leaders gave the highest rating among opposition candidates to A. Milinkevich (11%). Ratings of all other politicians opposing current president appeared below the margin of representative error. This means that in the eyes of elite A. Milinkevich is not just a sole but the only candidate for democratic forces.

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