IISEPS — Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Politycal Studies

INTEGRATION PROSPECTS: WITH EUROPE OR WITH RUSSIA?

As we have many times mentioned in our bulletins, Belarusian citizens have turned less concerned in Russia-Belarus integration over lately. Thus, at the end of 2002 almost 52% of respondents stood for close political and economic ties between the two countries while two years later – under 48%. On the other hand, the Belarusians – unlike Lithuanians – don’t show deep interest in building closer relation with the EU: nowadays only one third of respondents would like to join the united Europe. In which direction will integration interests of the citizens develop in the years to come? As we’ve noted, the viewpoints of opinion leaders and experts are a good indicator of public opinion trends to expect in the near future. Let’s see what they think about integration processes.

Asked if Belarus should become a member of the EU, absolute majority of leaders and experts (94%) answered in the positive (See Table 1). Representatives of both public and private sectors have almost the same opinion of this. In other words, the Belarusian elite doesn’t see any prospects for Belarus outside the united Europe even though this may disagree with the foreign policy of the authorities.

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question "Do you think Belarus should become a member of the European Union?", %

Variant of answer	All respondents	Public sector employees	Private sector employees
Yes	94	90	97
No	3	3	3

Also, respondents do not hesitate to choose between accession to the EU and integration with Russia. Overwhelming majority (90%) stands for accession of Belarus to the EU rather than integration with Russia (See Table 2). However, there are 5-6-fold more supporters of Russia-Belarus integration (17%) among public sector employees as compared with the private sector employees.

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question "If you were to choose between integration with Russia and accession to the European Union, which one would you choose?", %

Variant of answer	All respondents	Public sector employees	Private sector employees
Accession to the European Union	90	83	97
Integration with Russia	10	17	3

In the opinion of the elite, the role of the integration-with-Russia course in general is getting down within the Belarusian society. Many of respondents are convinced that the referendum of 2004 has even more aggravated relations between the two countries. On the other hand, the elite expects more active support of democratization in Belarus from the part of the EU. This is why, as it goes from Table 3, the majority of respondents (72%) are convinced that Belarus-EU relations will turn closer than Belarus-Russia relations within the next 10 years. Representatives of the two sectors are unanimous in this.

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question "In ten years, will Belarus be closer to the EU or Russia?", %

Variant of answer	All respondents	Public sector employees	Private sector employees
EU	72	73	70
Russia	25	27	23

Results of the opinion poll among leaders and experts draw to the conclusion that accession to the European Union is the only right direction for this country. This opinion shall become dominant in the Belarusian public conscience in the very near future.